11:00 AM

Good Morning Finyear Readers!

European equities are trading lower again this morning having been unable to hold on to earlier gains despite overall positive European PMI figures.

Basically not much has changed over the weekend, while markets are trying to stabilise there is still plenty of uncertainty out there what emerging market countries are concerned. Until battered emerging market's currencies like for example the Turkish Lira and the South African Rand show clear signs of stability and consequently that investor confidence is returning it will be unlikely that European stock markets will be able to regain the strong upside momentum seen less than two weeks ago.
For this week traders will be keeping a close eye on the ECB meeting and US non-farm payrolls. In light of lower than expected European inflation data and sluggish growth
across most of Europe some are expecting that the ECB might be lowering rates as deflation might become a threat in the months ahead. Overall sentiment remains negative and investors are becoming increasingly risk averse. Nobody is in a real rush to hurry back into stocks and to take on unnecessary risk instead many are convinced by merely staying on the
side-lines that not too far into the future they will be able to buy stocks at a cheaper price compared to now.

Thank you.
Kind regards,

Markus Huber | Senior Sales-Trader/Senior Analyst
Peregrine & Black
www.peregrineblack.com




Hesitant Equity Markets Wait For PMIs/Lloyds Sets Aside £1.8b For Misselling PPI - ETX Capital

Trepidation in European equity markets on first trading day of the month as investors in the region await PMI manufacturing data out of the euro zone, UK and the US. The euro zone PMIs should confirm an encouraging picture of manufacturing activity in the region since the start of the year. Stronger business confidence out of Germany is likely to drive the growth in the broader EMU PMIs with improving conditions in Spain likely to add – markets look for a reading of 53.9 in January.

Spanish PMIs were better than expected, in at 52.2 last month versus consensus at 51.5 and the prior reading of 50.8. At the same time, UK PMI manufacturing data, due after the euro zone release, should show further gains in the country’s manufacturing activity as data out of the industrial sector last month showed upbeat signs of improvement.

Both the UK and EMU releases will be eagerly eyed by the market ahead of this week’s BOE and ECB policy meetings in which both central banks are expected to offer beefed up forward guidance. The ECB is also expected to cut the refi-rate again in the face of falling inflation however the market remains divided, unsure that the ECB will make the move just yet. Later from the US, we have the ISM manufacturing report which is expected to show weakness given the severe weather conditions last month. We also have construction spending data out of the US which will be scrutinised too.

Overnight, the rout in EMs continued on the back of slowing data out of China as the country’s PMI manufacturing report continued to deteriorate last month. Despite the weakness being widely expected, traders were taking no chances and continued to dump EM assets in favour for riskier investments. Japanese markets felt the pressure with the Nikkei 225 index now the worst performing major global index after last year’s bumper gains. Japanese equities are feeling the pressure of external factors including the Fed’s tapering measures, slowing China growth and subsequent fallout of the EM deterioration which has left investors adjusting asset portfolios – Japanese equities are one of the more vulnerable assets.

Going onto stock markets, Lloyds Banking Group shares decline sharply after the UK bank sets aside a further £1.8billion for mis-selling PPI to consumers, like peer RBS did last week. Unhelpful news; Lloyds is seen as the better behaved UK bank versus scandalous peers RBS and Barclays however like them, it cannot run away from the banking sectors’ errors of the past.

Lloyds says it is still on track to post a small profit but the PPI costs will certainly hit earnings for the bank at a time when the government and the bank are looking to get the taxpayers’ stake sold-off back into the markets. Moreover, the bank is delaying the dividend until 2014 and guiding only for a modest payout ratio, pushing traders to seek out other stocks that offer better divi payouts. All eyes on EU and UK PMIs – Tuesday will see an RBA rate announcement and UK construction PMIs.

Ishaq Siddiqi
Market Strategist
ETX Capital
www.etxcapital.com

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