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S&P - Banques européennes : €110 milliards de fonds propres supplémentaires nécessaire

Résumé en 4 points.

- Pour que leur niveau de fonds propres ait un effet « neutre » sur leur notation, les 50 premières banques européennes ont un besoin de €110 milliards au total. (Pour les banques dont le niveau de fonds propres est actuellement « négatif », un passage à « neutre » pourrait avoir un effet positif sur leur notation)
- Au cours du 1er semestre de 2013, l’ensemble de ces 50 banques a réduit la taille de leur bilan de €1 100 milliards au total, réduisant leurs besoins cumulés en fonds propres de €34 milliards.
- La situation individuelle des banques diverge toutefois sensiblement en matière de qualité du capital.
- L’Asset Quality Review et les stress tests de la BCE devraient favoriser la poursuivre de la réduction des bilans et le renforcement des fonds propres.

Report Says Western European Banks Are Striving To Plug Their Capital Shortfalls

Standard & Poor's said today that Western Europe's 50 largest banks would need to raise €110 billion in capital in aggregate to reach the minimum levels where it would not consider their capital ratios a rating weakness.

"In spite of this large shortfall, our evidence from the first half of 2013 is that Europe's largest banks are not only improving their capital positions, but are also significantly accelerating their deleveraging as a means to improve their overall capital and leverage," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Sean Cotten in a report published today, "Western European Banks Race To Plug Their €110 Billion Capital Shortfall".

The shortfall for European banks represents 60% of the global €185 billion capital shortfall that we estimate for all the banks we rate. The share for Western Europe's banks is relatively high mainly because of the severe impact the eurozone crisis had on the southern European and Irish domestic banking sectors, says the report.

In the first half of 2013, the top 50 Western European banks accelerated deleveraging has reduced the aggregate capital shortfall by up to €34 billion, of which one-third by banks on the eurozone periphery and two-thirds by banks in the rest of Western Europe.

Nevertheless, banks' capital generation and positions relative to regulatory requirements diverge widely, and our analysis reveals significant differences in the quality of capital among the top 50 European banks. The capital increases for Europe's largest banks in the first half of the year resulted mainly from an increase in adjusted common equity (ACE) of €48 billion (4.5%), primarily through retained earnings and other equity improvements.

We nevertheless expect the proportion of hybrid issuances to continue to grow over the coming years, partly because market conditions for issuance have improved. In addition, European banks are rekindling interest in hybrid issuance since EU regulators clarified requirements for eligibility for additional Tier 1 capital.

"In isolation, capital metrics do not tell the full story of a bank's financial strength," said Mr. Cotten. "We expect that the European Central Bank's Asset Quality Review and stress test in 2014 will seek to expose unrecognized or underprovisioned losses in eurozone banks or overvaluation of less liquid assets. However, we believe that we capture these shortcomings in our combined assessment of risk and capital."

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, part of McGraw Hill Financial (NYSE: MHFI), is the world's leading provider of independent credit risk research and benchmarks. We publish more than a million credit ratings on debt issued by sovereign, municipal, corporate and financial sector entities. With over 1,400 credit analysts in 23 countries, and more than 150 years' experience of assessing credit risk, we offer a unique combination of global coverage and local insight. Our research and opinions about relative credit risk provide market participants with information and independent benchmarks that help to support the growth of transparent, liquid debt markets worldwide.

Copyright © 2013 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

Lundi 16 Décembre 2013