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Perspectives pour 2014 en Banque d’Investissement

5ème Enquête annuelle sur les décideurs en entreprise: Thomson Reuters & Freeman Consulting.

Un ton plus positif est révélé dans la cinquième Perspective des Services de Banques d’Investissement, l'enquête annuelle sur les décideurs des entreprises de Thomson Reuters et les services de Freeman Consulting.

Par rapport à l'enquête de l'année dernière, qui a été réalisée au cours d'une période dominée par des titres sur la crise de la dette européenne, l'humeur optimiste pour 2014 montre une évolution vers une période de politique d’expansion, l'augmentation des volumes - en particulier dans le secteur financier, en s'éloignant de la réduction des coûts et de l’objectif de la structure des frais en 2013.

Plus de détails peuvent être trouvés, en bas de cet article, dans le rapport (PDF), qui contient des répartitions régionales et sectorielles pour des réponses sur une série de questions de placements bancaires.

Points essentiels ci-dessous :

Spending Cash Reserves: Record cash holdings to support dividend increases in 2014
- In both US and Europe, dividend increases were cited as a top priority for spending cash by 12% more respondents in this year’s survey vs. last year’s
- M&A remains primary use of cash, but cited almost -10% less frequently this year vs. last year. As loan markets reopen, less cash and more debt likely to be used to fund M&A bids

Selecting a Bank: IB clients now looking beyond fees when selecting an advisor
- As in all previous surveys dating back to 2009, respondents value detailed industry knowledge above all else, including existing relationships, fees, and quality of execution
- Percentage of respondents citing competitive fee structures as a key criterion fell from 45% last year to 31% this year – the lowest level in our entire 5 years of surveying. In a major trend reversal, Asian firms are far more fee-sensitive than American or EMEA counterparts

M&A Objectives: Expansionary goals replace cost synergy and valuation-driven ones
- 44% of respondents globally cited product line expansion as a key goal, up from 32% last year, evincing willingness to pursue a high-risk acquisition outside their core markets
- The rush to buy undervalued assets is over – at least in Americas and EMEA. This objective was cited as an M&A driver by just 22% of respondents vs. 31% last year

M&A Deal Volume: Volume forecast to rise +17% in 2014, with growth in every sector
- Respondents’ +17% forecast would push global volume to highest level since 2008
- The Financial sector – 2013’s worst performing sector – forecasts +34% deal volume increase in 2014, as revenue improves and PE searches for deals
- Pressure to match acquisitive competitors seen as top 2014 M&A driver, particularly in Americas, where it was cited by two-thirds of respondents
- Crisis of confidence in Asia? In Asia, management’s confidence in future growth was cited as an M&A catalyst by just 36% of respondents, down from 60% last year. However, in Americas and EMEA, the figure rose to 48% from 21%

Debt Capital Markets: Post-crisis record year seen for bond and loan markets, despite rising rates
- Bond and syndicated loan deal activity each expected to rise +17% in 2014, which would represent an all-time record year for bonds, and the best year for loans since 2007
- As US Fed tightens monetary policy, 61% of Americas respondents see rising interest rates on corporate debt in 2014, vs. 39% in EMEA and 47% in APAC

Equity Capital Markets: Demand for capital to fuel growth creates favorable IPO environment for 2014
- Resurgent IPO activity likely to continue into 2014. 61% of respondents believe companies will use share offerings to fund growth
- European respondents see share offerings used to boost liquidity and deleverage

“Thomson Reuters’ fifth annual survey of corporate decision makers paints a cautiously optimistic picture for deal making in 2014. Credit issuance is expected to grow to record levels despite expected interest rate rises and this in turn will drive M&A funding. The appetite for transformative M&A growth is increasing and expectations are for a superior IPO environment, which suggests improved confidence in macro-economic conditions,” said Leon Saunders Calvert, Thomson Reuters’ Head of Banking & Research. “The defining factor for companies in choosing investment banks remains the ability to demonstrate detailed industry knowledge. This is reflected in the market by the growth, over the past few years, in the size and number of advisory boutiques, who do not have an equivalent balance sheet to deploy on their clients’ behalf, but who define themselves by their sector expertise. This trend is likely to continue as the investment banking and advisory market continues to adapt to the post-crisis environment.”

During Q3 2013, CFOs, Treasurers, and other influential managers in Strategic Planning, Corporate Development, and Market Intelligence from over 120 firms globally gave their views on the outlook for investment banking services in 2014. Respondents’ firms range from small, regional businesses to mega-cap global conglomerates

Perspectives pour 2014 en Banque d’Investissement :

Thomson Reuters

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Mercredi 11 Décembre 2013

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