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Selon l'auteur du document: " En ce moment, les marchés nous font avaler l'histoire suivante: la situation est très critique, mais au moins, elle est stable et les choses vont bientôt s'améliorer. S'il s'agissait d'un jeu de roulette, nous aurions tous misé sur les cases de relance. Cependant, au cours des prochains mois la déception sera extrêmement forte, si les perspectives qui sont actuellement très optimistes venaient à être détruites".
John H. Hardy justifie son point de vue critique par le fait que les signes d'une vraie reprise ne sont pas assez prononcés. Selon lui, les marchés se trouvent toujours dans une récession en W et la légère amélioration du marché immobilier américain n'indique pas non plus une reprise. Sa thèse se trouve également confirmée au regard des marchés de matières premières. D'après lui, nous traversons uniquement une phase de reprise moyenne, avant que les marchés ne risquent de s'effondrer à nouveau profondément.
Document ci-dessous (en anglais).
By John H. Hardy, FX Strategist, Saxo Bank
The story that almost all markets are trying to sell us at the moment is that the current situation may be awful but it's stable and soon everything will be better. If this were a roulette table, then all chips are on the recovery numbers. The disappointment will be extreme in coming months if the rosy expectations are dashed.
The US July Durable Goods Orders were very strong on the headline, if a bit weaker ex Transportation. A breakdown shows nothing to suggest that this wasn't a strong report, with strength evident in new orders almost across the board. Still, we are down -19.7% for year on year ex-defense total shipments. There is a lot of wood to chop if the US is going to get its economy back to where it was just a year ago before it's slide into the abyss. The classic w-shaped recession argument suggest that we are seeing a restocking cycle (the middle hump in the "W") that gets everyone's hopes up before final demand fails to come through once again and leads to the second. Everyone is obsession to such a degree over the shape of the recession that commentators have even come up with the "square-root" shaped recession (the kind with a flat right side under which a variable lies), in other words, we had a short, sharp financial panic, but we will soon get back on track, if with uninspiring growth. Our model for what is going on here suggests that the W-shaped recession is more likely, unless someone can design a square-root symbol with a downward arc on the right side...
We previously gave the USD a reasonable chance of etching a new bottom as the risk rally could seem to find insufficiently credible opposition. But the reaction to the very positive data yesterday (Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence) and the lackluster response to the German IFO today suggest that the momentum risks fading here for risk. Still, we need stronger signs in the charts that we are on to something in the USD and JPY strength department. EURUSD needs to take out 1.4250 decisively and then some AUDUSD needs to take out the trendline (see below) and other levels. If equities simply find that this has been a speedbump and charge higher once again, then the USD will likely test lower within the range in the near term. The strong bond market continues to look very odd considering the market optimism - it seems a strong recovery would mean that long bonds are not the place to park our money. The short end of the curve is strong as well. Yesterday's auction of US 2-year notes, which yield a paltry 104 bps at last check. Something doesn't fit - our guess is that risk appetite could be in for a reality check soon. Strong fixed income markets will continue to boost the Yen, though we must grapple with a sea-change election this weekend in Japan.
So looking across the market, we see the commodity currencies struggling mightily - a sign that risky positions are being taken off in this market. The huge reversal in oil yesterday after the US API inventories showed a big drop and the BoC warning on the loonie boosted USDCAD very sharply. It is interesting to note that reasonably hawkish words from an RBA official and the comeback rally in Chinese stocks are failing to give AUD any lifeline today. GBP is also struggling against the USD and the EUR after the very dovish recent rhetoric from King and company.
The remaining focus for the day is the New Home Sales data for July. It would not be a surprise to be a strong figure considering that many new home buyers are first time buyers and that population of buyers is being given a once in a lifetime tax break this year if they are able to purchase a home before December 1. If this number is particularly weak today, it would be a rather strong confutation of the other stronger housing numbers of late (CaseShiller and Existing Home Sales). Besides, over the last 24 hours, we have seen that positive data seems to be losing its ability to boost the market.
About John H. Hardy
John H. Hardy graduated from University of Texas at Austin (graduated with high honours). John is Consulting FX Strategist for Saxo Bank. John has developed a broad following from his popular and often quoted daily Forex Market Update column, received by Saxo Bank clients and partners, the press and sales traders.
John is a regular guest and commentator on television networks, including CNBC and Bloomberg. He also writes regular ad-hoc commentary focusing on the major currencies, Central Bank policies, macro-economic trends and other developments and is one of the authors of the Saxo Bank Yearly Outlooks and 10 Outrageous Predictions.
www.saxobank.com
John H. Hardy justifie son point de vue critique par le fait que les signes d'une vraie reprise ne sont pas assez prononcés. Selon lui, les marchés se trouvent toujours dans une récession en W et la légère amélioration du marché immobilier américain n'indique pas non plus une reprise. Sa thèse se trouve également confirmée au regard des marchés de matières premières. D'après lui, nous traversons uniquement une phase de reprise moyenne, avant que les marchés ne risquent de s'effondrer à nouveau profondément.
Document ci-dessous (en anglais).
By John H. Hardy, FX Strategist, Saxo Bank
The story that almost all markets are trying to sell us at the moment is that the current situation may be awful but it's stable and soon everything will be better. If this were a roulette table, then all chips are on the recovery numbers. The disappointment will be extreme in coming months if the rosy expectations are dashed.
The US July Durable Goods Orders were very strong on the headline, if a bit weaker ex Transportation. A breakdown shows nothing to suggest that this wasn't a strong report, with strength evident in new orders almost across the board. Still, we are down -19.7% for year on year ex-defense total shipments. There is a lot of wood to chop if the US is going to get its economy back to where it was just a year ago before it's slide into the abyss. The classic w-shaped recession argument suggest that we are seeing a restocking cycle (the middle hump in the "W") that gets everyone's hopes up before final demand fails to come through once again and leads to the second. Everyone is obsession to such a degree over the shape of the recession that commentators have even come up with the "square-root" shaped recession (the kind with a flat right side under which a variable lies), in other words, we had a short, sharp financial panic, but we will soon get back on track, if with uninspiring growth. Our model for what is going on here suggests that the W-shaped recession is more likely, unless someone can design a square-root symbol with a downward arc on the right side...
We previously gave the USD a reasonable chance of etching a new bottom as the risk rally could seem to find insufficiently credible opposition. But the reaction to the very positive data yesterday (Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence) and the lackluster response to the German IFO today suggest that the momentum risks fading here for risk. Still, we need stronger signs in the charts that we are on to something in the USD and JPY strength department. EURUSD needs to take out 1.4250 decisively and then some AUDUSD needs to take out the trendline (see below) and other levels. If equities simply find that this has been a speedbump and charge higher once again, then the USD will likely test lower within the range in the near term. The strong bond market continues to look very odd considering the market optimism - it seems a strong recovery would mean that long bonds are not the place to park our money. The short end of the curve is strong as well. Yesterday's auction of US 2-year notes, which yield a paltry 104 bps at last check. Something doesn't fit - our guess is that risk appetite could be in for a reality check soon. Strong fixed income markets will continue to boost the Yen, though we must grapple with a sea-change election this weekend in Japan.
So looking across the market, we see the commodity currencies struggling mightily - a sign that risky positions are being taken off in this market. The huge reversal in oil yesterday after the US API inventories showed a big drop and the BoC warning on the loonie boosted USDCAD very sharply. It is interesting to note that reasonably hawkish words from an RBA official and the comeback rally in Chinese stocks are failing to give AUD any lifeline today. GBP is also struggling against the USD and the EUR after the very dovish recent rhetoric from King and company.
The remaining focus for the day is the New Home Sales data for July. It would not be a surprise to be a strong figure considering that many new home buyers are first time buyers and that population of buyers is being given a once in a lifetime tax break this year if they are able to purchase a home before December 1. If this number is particularly weak today, it would be a rather strong confutation of the other stronger housing numbers of late (CaseShiller and Existing Home Sales). Besides, over the last 24 hours, we have seen that positive data seems to be losing its ability to boost the market.
About John H. Hardy
John H. Hardy graduated from University of Texas at Austin (graduated with high honours). John is Consulting FX Strategist for Saxo Bank. John has developed a broad following from his popular and often quoted daily Forex Market Update column, received by Saxo Bank clients and partners, the press and sales traders.
John is a regular guest and commentator on television networks, including CNBC and Bloomberg. He also writes regular ad-hoc commentary focusing on the major currencies, Central Bank policies, macro-economic trends and other developments and is one of the authors of the Saxo Bank Yearly Outlooks and 10 Outrageous Predictions.
www.saxobank.com
