Who Has The Most To Lose From Brexit?

In a survey of 20 countries most exposed to a potential U.K. exit from the EU compiled by S&P Global Ratings, Ireland, Malta, Luxembourg, and Cyprus are in the frontline of economies susceptible to any trade and migratory aftershocks from a decision by the U.K. to leave. S&P's Brexit Sensitivity Index (BSI) measures goods and services exports to the U.K. compared to these economies' domestic GDP, bidirectional migrant flows, financial sector claims on U.K. counterparties (including off balance sheet claims), and foreign direct investment in the U.K. (see Appendix).

According to this methodology, Ireland and other small open financial centers lead the list of sovereigns vulnerable to a U.K. decision to exit the EU. Of the 20 sovereigns most exposed, only two (Canada and Switzerland) are not EU members, and just one (Canada) is not European.

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