Les grandes lignes, traduites en français, de Rajeev De Mello de Western AM sont :

- "On peut envisager une stabilisation des devises asiatiques en raison d’une tendance mondiale à la diminution de prise de risque. L’amélioration de la liquidité sur le marché américain est propre à favoriser les obligations des entreprises et des états asiatiques. A moyen terme, il est probable que l’Asie connaisse une reprise plus rapide que les autres régions du monde.
- Bien que les prévisions de croissance aient été revues à la baisse, la plupart des économies dépendantes de leur marché domestique comme la Chine, l’Inde et l’Indonésie, comptent encore une part importante de zones vivant en marge de l’économie mondialisé
- La faiblesse principale de l’Asie a été sa dépendance vis-à-vis de ses exportations ainsi que les effets d’une politique restée longtemps sévère. Cependant, l’assouplissement de celle-ci, de même que le financement par des accords monétaires bilatéraux et des accords de développement en partenariat avec les banques, permettent d’espérer des conditions de crédits moins strictes.
- A moyen terme, les fondamentaux de la zone asiatique devraient demeurés inchangés. L’accroissement de la productivité se poursuivra : les secteurs secondaire et tertiaire sont en fort développement, et le secteur agricole se rationnalise. S’ajoute à cela une classe moyenne en pleine expansion qui viendra stimuler la consommation. D’autre part, le commerce interrégional continuera à être soutenu par l’activité des multinationales"

Par Rajeev De Mello, responsable des investissements asiatiques chez Western Asset Management
www.leggmason.co.uk

Texte original

WESTERN ASSET: ASIA BETTER POSITIONED THAN OTHER REGIONS FOR RECOVERY

Western Asset Management, the global fixed income manager whollyowned by Legg Mason, Inc., is positive on Asian currencies as global risk appetite returns and equity outflow stabilizes, thereby removing one of the causes of currency weakness in 2008.

More positive current accounts also provide a fundamental underpinning to the regional currencies. Asian sovereign and corporate bonds should further benefit from improved liquidity in the U.S. dollar funding markets. “We continue to overweight the Chinese Yuan and Korean won and will look to exploit any rise in volatility to increase our position, “said Rajeev De Mello, Head of Asian Investment at Western Asset.

On the regional economies, Western Asset believes that Asia is well positioned to recover faster than most other regions of the world in the medium term. Despite significant downward revisions to regional growth expectations, the larger, more domestic-reliant Asian economies such as China, India and Indonesia have significant portions that are largely insulated from the global economy.

“Asia’s main weakness has been its reliance on exports and its earlier policy tightening. As the effects from easier policy take hold, Asian economies will recover. Financing from bi-lateral currency agreements and multilateral development banks should help ease the liquidity crunch,” De Mello added.
As policy-makers will likely cut interest rates further as inflation hovers close to zero, De Mello believes that the main concern in bond markets will be the deteriorating fiscal budget and the need for governments to issue bonds.
“As we near the end of the easing cycle and see some economic stability, our bond positions will be shifted further out the yield curve to benefit from higher long-term yields,” said De Mello.

Western Asset already pared back some of its duration overweight but will maintain a modest position as it does not anticipate further policy tightening during the rest of the year. De Mello said the firm will allocate the duration to countries where the expected government supply has already been factored
in.
“Over the medium term, Asia’s main structural themes should remain intact. Increasing productivity will continue as the region grows its industrial and service sectors and rationalizes its agriculture while the growing middle class will lead to greater consumption. Intra-regional trade should continue as regional enterprises emulate developed country multi-national companies,” De Mello concluded.

About Western Asset
Western Asset is one of the world’s premier fixed income managers with over US$513.3 billion (December 31, 2008) under management. With offices in the United States, London, Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sao Paulo, the company offers clients a full range of local and cross-border, fixed income products. By devoting all of its resources to fixed income, Western Asset can provide a full commitment to clients in every area. This focused approach has generated positive returns in a variety of products with varying risk disciplines. Western Asset's long performance track record and global presence has positioned the company to continue its commitment to excellence in fixed income investment management and client service.

About Legg Mason
Legg Mason, Inc., headquartered in Baltimore, USA, is a global investment management firm with assets under management totaling US$698.2 billion as of December 31, 2008. Serving clients in 180 countries, Legg Mason is the 9th largest asset manager in the world1. Legg Mason’s wholly-owned, independently operated investment subsidiaries manage equity and fixed income assets across the world’s major markets. Collectively they offer a broad spectrum of asset management styles.
1 Legg Mason is the 9th largest asset manager in the world based on worldwide assets under management as of 31 December 2007. Source: Pensions & Investments May 2008 ranking.

www.leggmason.co.uk