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Markets Morning Briefing - February 19, 2014

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Commentaires quotidiens

Markets Morning Briefing - February 19, 2014
BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey Finds Fears Growing Over China, but Europe and U.S. Holding Firm

Growing fears of a hard landing for China’s economy have further marginalized emerging market equities. But investors have sent a clear signal that sentiment toward developed world equities remains strong, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for February.

A growing proportion of investors – 46 percent in February – say that a China hard landing and commodity collapse represents the biggest tail risk to the global economy. That figure compares with 37 percent in January and 26 percent in December.

Belief in global economic growth has moderated. A net 56 percent expects the global economy to strengthen in the coming 12 months, down 19 percentage points from a net 75 percent last month. Global equity allocations are down; a net 45 percent of asset allocators say they are overweight equities, down from a net 55 percent in January. Average cash balances have increased to their highest level since July 2012 of 4.8 percent of portfolios, up from 4.5 percent.

But regional data shows that concerns are focused on Global Emerging Markets (GEM), while optimism towards Europe and the U.S. remains strong. Allocations to GEM have reached a record low with a net 29 percent of asset allocators underweight the region. At the same time, a record net 40 percent of the global investor panel says that the eurozone is the region they most would like to overweight in the coming 12 months. U.S. equities are becoming more popular – a net 11 percent of asset allocators are overweight the U.S., up from a net 5 percent a month ago.

“High cash levels, at 4.8 percent of portfolios, are sending an unambiguous ‘buy’ signal for risk assets,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

“Investors remain firmly bullish towards developed markets and Europe in particular. But we would caution that current valuations in Europe already fully price in the region’s growth outlook,” said John Bilton, European investment strategist.

Cash stand-off: Corporates vs. investors

While cash levels accumulate in investors’ portfolios, the Fund Manager Survey shows a new record number of investors demanding corporates put their cash to work in the real economy.

The proportion of investors saying that companies are underinvesting has climbed to 69 percent, thereby eclipsing the record set one month ago of 67 percent. Furthermore the gap, or spread, between investors wanting corporate to increase capital expenditure (capex) rather than return cash to shareholders remains at a record high. Fifty-eight percent of investors want to see more capex, while 25 percent opt for dividends and buybacks – a spread of 33 percentage points.

At the same time, nearly eight out of 10 investors are predicting below-trend growth over the coming year. The survey data indicates that investors will be more likely to commit cash when they see capex rising and stimulating economic growth.

Trading places in investors’ hearts: Banks and emerging markets

In the wake of the global financial crisis, banks were unloved and GEM were portfolio darlings. The reversal in sentiment between these two investments appears complete this month.

While allocations to GEM reached a record low, allocations to banks by respondents to the global survey have reached a record high. A net 28 percent said they are overweight banks, a significant swing since January when a net 16 percent were overweight.

One glimmer of hope for GEM is that the number of investors seeking to underweight the region in the coming year has eased slightly. A net 24 percent of global investors would like to underweight GEM in the next 12 months, down from a net 28 percent in January.

European equities at fever pitch

Optimism towards Europe has reached new highs. A net 40 percent of investors say that Europe is the region they most want to overweight. Europe has ranked as the most preferred region for six months. Belief continues to grow in Europe’s profit outlook. A net 12 percent of the global panel says that Europe is the region in which the profit outlook appears the most favorable, up from a net 8 percent a month ago.

Within Europe, a net 70 percent of respondents to the regional survey expect better profits in the year ahead – up from a net 59 percent last month. The number of European investors expecting double-digit earnings growth also increased.

Fund Manager Survey
An overall total of 222 panelists with US$591 billion of assets under management participated in the survey from 7 February to 13 February 2014. A total of 175 managers, managing US$456 billion, participated in the global survey. A total of 110 managers, managing US$249 billion, participated in the regional surveys. The survey was conducted by BofA Merrill Lynch Research with the help of market research company TNS. Through its international network in more than 50 countries, TNS provides market information services in over 80 countries to national and multi-national organizations. It is ranked as the fourth-largest market information group in the world.

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
The BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research franchise covers more than 3,500 stocks and 1,150 credits globally and ranks in the top tier in many external surveys. Most recently, the group was named Top Global Research Firm of 2013 by Institutional Investor magazine; No. 1 in the 2014 Institutional Investor All-Europe survey; No. 1 in the 2013 Institutional Investor All-Asia survey for the third consecutive year; No. 1 in the Institutional Investor 2013 Emerging Market & Fixed Income Survey; No. 2 in the 2013 Institutional Investor All-America survey; No. 2 in the All-Japan survey for the second consecutive year; No. 2 in the 2013 All-Latin America survey; and No. 2 in the 2013 All-China survey. The group was also named No. 2 in the 2013 Institutional Investor All-America Fixed Income survey for the second consecutive year; and No. 3 in the 2013 All-Europe Fixed Income Research survey.

Bank of America
Bank of America is one of the world's largest financial institutions, serving individual consumers, small- and middle-market businesses and large corporations with a full range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company provides unmatched convenience in the United States, serving approximately 50 million consumer and small business relationships with approximately 5,100 retail banking offices and approximately 16,300 ATMs and award-winning online banking with 30 million active users and more than 14 million mobile users. Bank of America is among the world's leading wealth management companies and is a global leader in corporate and investment banking and trading across a broad range of asset classes, serving corporations, governments, institutions and individuals around the world. Bank of America offers industry-leading support to approximately 3 million small business owners through a suite of innovative, easy-to-use online products and services. The company serves clients through operations in more than 40 countries. Bank of America Corporation stock (NYSE: BAC) is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is the marketing name for the global banking and global markets businesses of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., member FDIC. Securities, strategic advisory, and other investment banking activities are performed globally by investment banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation (“Investment Banking Affiliates”), including, in the United States, Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated, which is a registered broker-dealer and a member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, locally registered entities. Investment products offered by Investment Banking Affiliates: Are Not FDIC Insured * May Lose Value * Are Not Bank Guaranteed.

www.bankofamerica.com
Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Chiffres du jour

Estimation rapide pour le quatrième trimestre 2013 : Le PIB de la zone euro en hausse de 0,3% et celui de l’UE28 en hausse de 0,4%

+0,5% et +1,0% respectivement par rapport au quatrième trimestre 2012.

Au cours du quatrième trimestre 2013, le PIB a augmenté de 0,3% dans la zone euro (ZE17) et de 0,4% dans l’UE28 par rapport au trimestre précédent, selon les estimations rapides publiées par Eurostat, l’office statistique de l'Union européenne.
Au cours du troisième trimestre 2013, le PIB avait crû de 0,1% dans la zone euro et de 0,3% dans l’UE28.

EUROSTAT
ec.europa.eu/eurostat


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TAUX D'INTERET LEGAL

Le taux d'intérêt légal 2014 reste inchangé par rapport à 2013. Il demeure fixé à 0,04%.
Par Décret n° 2014-98 du 4 février 2014 (J.O. du 6 février) le taux de l'intérêt légal est fixé à 0,04 % pour l'année 2014.

Rappelons que :
- En 2013, il était de 0,04%
- En 2012, il était de 0,71%
- En 2011, il était de 0,38%
- En 2010, il était de 0,65%
- En 2009, il était de 3,79%
- En 2008, il était de 3,99%
- En 2007, il était de 2,95 %

Lisez notre article "Taux d'intérêt légal et taux interbancaires (définitions et historiques)" en suivant ce lien


TAUX INTERBANCAIRES

Taux quotidiens (Mise à jour quotidienne, tableau fourni par la Banque de France)
+
Moyennes mensuelles (Mise à jour mensuelle, tableau fourni par la Banque de France)
* Moyennes calculées avec le nombre de jours calendaires du mois





Notes :

- Euro Overnight Index Average (EONIA) : taux calculé par la BCE et diffusé par la FBE (Fédération Bancaire de l'Union Européenne). Il résulte de la moyenne pondérée de toutes les transactions au jour le jour de prêts non garantis réalisées par les banques retenues pour le calcul de l'euribor.

- Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR) : taux interbancaire offert entre banques de meilleures signatures pour la rémunération de dépôts dans la zone euro. Il est calculé en effectuant une moyenne quotidienne des taux prêteurs sur 13 échéances communiqués par un échantillon de 57 établissements bancaires les plus actifs de la zone Euro. Il est calculé sur la base de 360 jours et est diffusé à 11h le matin si au moins 50% des établissements constituant l'échantillon ont effectivement fourni une contribution. La moyenne est effectuée après élimination des 15% de cotation extrêmes (le nombre éliminé est toujours arrondi) et exprimée avec trois décimales.

Tableaux et historiques des TAUX D'INTERET DU MARCHE INTERBANCAIRE DE LA ZONE EURO édités par la Banque de France

Taux de référence des bons du Trésor et OAT

Taux quotidiens (Mise à jour quotidienne, tableau fourni par la Banque de France)
+
Moyennes mensuelles (Mise à jour mensuelle, tableau fourni par la Banque de France)
* Moyennes calculées avec le nombre de jours calendaires du mois

Tableaux et historiques des taux de référence des bons du Trésor et OAT édités par la Banque de France




INDICES OBLIGATAIRES

Indices Quotidiens TEC-N (Mise à jour quotidienne, tableau fourni par la Banque de France)

Description : L’indice quotidien CNO-TEC n, Taux de l’Echéance Constante n ans, pour n variant de 1 à 30, est le taux de rendement actuariel d’une valeur du Trésor fictive dont la durée de vie serait à chaque instant égale à n années.

Ce taux est obtenu par interpolation linéaire entre les taux de rendement actuariels annuels des 2 valeurs du Trésor qui encadrent au plus proche la maturité n.

Les historiques, réunis en un seul fichier, sont accessibles ici sur le site de la Banque de France.


Indices Hebdomadaires (Mise à jour hebdomadaire, tableau fourni par la Banque de France)

Notice : (description et calcul)
THO : Taux hebdomadaire du marché primaire des émissions à plus de 7 ans (TEC 10 +0,25%)
THE : Taux hebdomadaire des emprunts d'Etat ayant une échéance de plus de 7 ans (TEC 10 +0,05%)
FELT : Rendement secondaire des emprunts d'Etat à plus de 7 ans (TEC 10 +0,05%)
FECT : Rendement secondaire des emprunts d'Etat entre 3 et 7 ans (TEC 5 +0,05%)
PRLT : Rendement secondaire des emprunts du secteur privé à plus de 7 ans (TEC 10 +0,25%)
PUCT : Rendement secondaire des emprunts du secteur public de 3 à 7 ans (TEC 5 +0,25%)
PULT : Rendement secondaire des emprunts du secteur public à plus de 7 ans (TEC 10 +0,25%)

Les historiques, réunis en un seul fichier, sont accessibles ici sur le site de la Banque de France.


Indices mensuels (Mise à jour mensuelle, tableau fourni par la Banque de France)

Description :
TMO : Moyenne arithmétique des THO du mois
TMB : Moyenne arithmétique des THB du mois ( THB = Taux Hebdomadaire d'adjudication des Bons du trésor à 13 semaines)
TME : Moyenne arithmétique des THE du mois

Les historiques, réunis en un seul fichier, sont accessibles ici sur le site de la Banque de France.

Tableaux et historiques des INDICES OBLIGATAIRES édités par la Banque de France


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Mercredi 19 Février 2014




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