MARKETS, ECONOMY & STATISTICS - Commentaries of the day

Every day our commentaries keep you updated.

09:30 AM
MARKETS - Morning Call - European Stocks Boosted By Fed’s Latest Stimulus Plans - Markus Huber, ETX Capital

European equity markets are trading sharply higher this morning feeding of strong US and Asian markets overnight as the Fed has finally provided the markets with another round of quantitative easing. While it may be doubtful if this latest measure will indeed give the US economy a much needed leg up and consequently will result in a faster growing economy and lower unemployment the Fed basically hedged their bet by not only pointing out that further additional measures are possible if needed but also neither did the Fed put a total amount of bond purchases nor a time limit on their most recent monetary operation, giving markets a clear sign that the Fed will do whatever it takes to restart the US economy. In Cyprus European Finance ministers are meeting today holding once again talks about how to best combat the European financial crisis, with no decision expected yet if Spain will be asking officially for a rescue package. Later in the day there are several important US economic data scheduled for release with the spotlight being on retail sales figures expected to show another respectable rise on the back of last month’s gain indicating that the consumer continues to be confident and optimistic despite sluggish growth and continuing high unemployment.

STATISTICS - EUROPA - Eurostat

Un excédent en hausse du commerce international de biens de l'UE27 avec l'Afrique du Sud.
An increasing EU27 surplus in international trade in goods with South Africa.
Ein wachsender Überschuss der EU27 im internationalen Warenverkehr mit Südafrika.

After the decline in EU27 trade in goods with South Africa observed in 2009, both exports and imports recovered in 2010 and 2011, although imports grew at a slower pace. The value of EU27 exports to South Africa reached a peak of 26.6 billion euro in 2011, while imports rose to 20.5 bn, still not reaching the level recorded in 2007. As a result, EU27 trade with South Africa registered a surplus of 6.1 bn in 2011, compared with +1.4 bn in 2010 and -3.1 bn in 2009.
The first half of 2012 showed a decrease in EU27 trade with South Africa, compared with the first half of 2011. Exports fell slightly from 13.2 bn in the first half of 2011 to 13.0 bn in the first half of 2012, and imports more significantly from 10.5 bn to 9.7 bn. As a result, the EU27 surplus in trade of goods with South Africa increased from 2.7 bn in the first half of 2011 to 3.4 bn in the same period of 2012. South Africa accounted for around 1.4% of the EU27's international trade in goods.

STATISTICS - FRANCE - INSEE

Baisse des créations d’entreprises en août 2012
Créations d’entreprises – Août 2012

Avertissement : Le régime de l'auto-entrepreneur ayant été mis en place début 2009, les auto-entrepreneurs sont incorporés aux statistiques de créations d’entreprises depuis janvier 2009. Toutefois, le modèle de désaisonnalisation de la série des créations est perturbé par le choc que constitue l’arrivée des auto-entrepreneurs, dont on ignore le profil saisonnier. Depuis le numéro d’octobre 2009, seule la composante « hors auto-entrepreneurs » est désaisonnalisée. On lui ajoute le nombre brut de créations sous le régime de l’auto-entrepreneur. En février 2012, le modèle de désaisonnalisation de la composante « hors auto-entrepreneurs » a été révisé pour l’ensemble des données, depuis janvier 2000.

En août 2012, le nombre de créations d'entreprises est en baisse par rapport au mois de juillet : -5,5 %, en données corrigées des variations saisonnières et du nombre de jours ouvrables y compris les demandes de création d’auto-entreprises en données brutes. Cette baisse est en partie compensée par les créations hors auto-entrepreneurs (+2,7 %).

+6,9 % en glissement annuel sur les trois derniers mois (T/T–4)
Le nombre cumulé de créations au cours des mois de juin, juillet et août 2012 est en hausse par rapport aux mêmes mois un an auparavant (+6,9 %).
Les secteurs qui contribuent (1) le plus à cette hausse sont la construction et l’« enseignement, santé, action sociale ».

-1,0 % sur les 12 derniers mois
Le nombre de créations au cours des 12 derniers mois est en baisse par rapport aux 12 mois précédents (-1,0 %).

Plus d’une création sur deux est une demande de création d’auto-entreprise
Sur les huit premiers mois de l’année 2012, on enregistre, en données brutes, 208 348 demandes de création d’auto-entreprises. Ces demandes représentent un peu plus de la moitié des créations.

Demandes de création d'auto-entreprises - Données brutes
Mai 2012 : 25 139
Juin 2012 : 27 096
Juil. 2012 : 23 966
Août 2012 : 20 987
Source : Insee, répertoire des entreprises et des établissements (Sirene)

(1) La contribution d'un secteur à l’évolution d'ensemble est l’évolution observée dans ce secteur, pondérée par le poids relatif du secteur dans l'ensemble.

STATISTICS - CANADA - Statistics Canada

Taux d'utilisation de la capacité industrielle, deuxième trimestre de 2012
Les industries canadiennes ont fonctionné à 81,0 % de leur capacité de production au deuxième trimestre, en hausse de 0,5 point de pourcentage par rapport au trimestre précédent. Les secteurs de la fabrication et hors fabrication ont contribué de façon comparable à cette hausse.

Industrial capacity utilization rates, second quarter 2012
Canadian industries operated at 81.0% of their production capacity in the second quarter, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector made comparable contributions to the increase.

STATISTICS - GERMANY - Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)

Trade tax rates increase on a federal average in 2011
As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in 2011, the average trade tax rate in Germany amounted to 392%, which was minimal over the preceding year’s level (390%). The total trade tax revenue amounted to EUR 40.5 billion in 2011, which was a 13.2% increase from the preceding year.

ECONOMY - EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

ECB: Monthly Bulletin
With the Monthly Bulletin the ECB meets its legal requirement to publish reports on the activities of the ESCB at least every quarter (as per Article 15.1 of the Statute of the ESCB). The Bulletin is published one week after the monthly meeting in which the Governing Council of the ECB takes its monetary policy decision. It explains this decision and makes it more transparent by providing a detailed analysis of the current economic situation and risks to price stability.
Each Monthly Bulletin also includes articles (except for the March, June, September and December issues), euro area statistics and annexes. See: http://www.ecb.int/pub/mb/html/index.en.html

12:30 PM
MARKETS - Mid-Morning Comment: Markets In Bullish Mood After Fed Provides QE3 - Ishaq Siddiqi, ETX Capital

European financial markets are jumping higher in response to fresh liquidity measures from the US Federal Reserve who essentially provided QE3 yesterday, pushing US markets to multi-year highs as a result. Under QE3, the Fed extended its zero rates policy to mid-2015, continued Operation Twist and importantly, announced plans to buy $40b of MBS ever month until the jobs market improves.

Furthermore, the Fed left the door wide open for more stimulus, perhaps as early as 2013. Standing by the economy no matter what, the Fed has demonstrated its commitment to safe-guarding the US economy and markets for now, feel the central bank has done enough to improve the outlook for the world’s largest economy. When you add this with the ECB’s bond buying plans announced last week, markets have been given another liquidity fix and we are now seeing fresh optimism which could continue into the end of the year. Moreover, promises by Chinese authorities to intervene with easing measures are likely to see the upside momentum remain in the weeks ahead.

Financials and resource stocks, together with industrials and automakers are the major beneficiaries of the recent liquidity operations. Cyclical sectors are on track to outperform for the course of the year now, while defensives are likely to take the back seat. In currency markets, the dollar was inevitably going to take a hit on QE3, while the euro has pushed up to a four month high and core government bonds such as German bunds have taken a leg lower as investors flock to riskier assets. Commodity prices have soared, with Nymex crude near the $100 per barrel mark. Finally, bond yields for both Spain and Italy eased further, with the Spanish 10-year now at around 5.6%.

The focus now falls to Spain and its position given the ECB’s recent stimulus plan – the Spanish PM has been reluctant to ask for aid as bond yields edge lower and he is said to be against taking the same route as Greece, Portugal and Ireland and ask for assistance. However, with borrowing costs still high, Spain may fall under the pressure of EU governments and finally seek help from the ECB. Next month, the country is looking to sell a hefty amount of bonds which would be the real litmus test in regards to how much appetite is left for Spanish debt.

As such, we seek more guidance from Spain at today’s EcoFin meeting and look to US economic data in context of the Fed’s move yesterday – we have retail sales, industrial production and University of Michigan confidence report – all of which are important metrics to measure the state of the US economy. Ahead of the US macro reports, we see the Dow Jones 30 index opening up around 60 points higher and the S&P500 index up 7 points, extending yesterday’s rally.

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