09:30AM

Good Morning!

European shares are trading sharply higher this morning on the back of emergency central bank action taken late last night in Turkey.
Turkey’s currency has dropped sharply over the past week on the back of several high profile political scandals. In order to stem the ongoing decline and to calm markets in general, Turkey’s central bank last night was forced to take aggressive steps by raising several important interest rates sharply.
Also providing stocks with a boost this morning are better than expected US and German consumer confidence figures. All in all no doubt Turkey’s central bank action and especially by the extend they raised rates has come a bit as a surprise. Still it needs to be seen if this indeed will pacify markets for the foreseeable future or if sooner or later the crisis will flare up again. Mainly because many are not convinced that the Turkish government has indeed done enough to convince foreign investors and many of their own citizen that the political scandals will be dealt with in the correct way.

Generally things look a lot calmer this morning compared to end of last week when markets suffered their worst declines of the year so far. Helping markets also this morning is a much more favourable technical picture, a close in the upper half of the trading range today would strongly indicate that the lows are in place for now.
Also short-covering ahead of the FOMC announcement is playing a big role and might even exacerbate today’s movement to the upside.
For many the move to the downside seen in the past week or so has been excessive especially as much of the bad news which impacted markets in a negative way was not necessarily new or even unexpected. It is well known for a while that China is suffering under liquidity constraints and a slowing economy, the same applies to the individual situations in Turkey, Argentina and the Ukraine.

Finally there are some speculations out there that as a one off the Fed might not increase their tapering by the planned 10 Billion USD simply because recent economic data has not been too convincing that the economy is off to a good start in 2014.
Also it is Bernanke’s last FOMC meeting and I am sure in order to hand over the reigns to his successor Janet Yellen in an orderly fashion and to provide her with a good start it is in the Fed’s best interest not to rattle markets in any way tonight.

Thank you.

Kind regards

Markus Huber | Senior Sales-Trader/Senior Analyst
Peregrine & Black
www.peregrineblack.com

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