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Economy, Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - January 10, 2014

Economy, Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates by Finyear, the Financial Year Journal.

Economy, Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - January 10, 2014
09:30 AM

Good Morning!

European shares are trading higher this morning ahead of today’s release of the closely watched US Non-Farm Payroll later this afternoon.

After yesterday’s late sell-off in Europe sparked by somewhat disappointing comments by ECB chief Draghi concerning the state of Europe’s economy and the very slow recovery in progress, shares are getting a bit of a lift this morning from firmer markets across Asia and a late rebound in US trading overnight.

Despite a narrower trade surplus posted by China, analysts are drawing some moderate optimism out of the data with imports having grown more than expected hinting towards growing and healthy consumption despite the overall economy slowing more than expected.

While there is plenty of data out in Europe this morning especially in France and the UK any reaction or moves related to them are most likely short lived as the main focus remains on this afternoon’s employment data in the US.

Overall as yesterday’s and this morning’s market action in Europe clearly show it seem like that markets haven’t quite made up their mind yet in which direction the next move is likely to be. For now markets just seem to test both sides of the recent trading range and once reached and hitting resistance quickly bouncing back to the middle of the range. Alcoa last night posted disappointing results having been unable to benefit from an acceleration of the global economy in the past few months.

However the impact on the overall market has been very subdued so far. While Alcoa historically often is setting the trend how the entire earnings season is likely to turn out, analyst still consider it more likely at this stage that we will get a mixed bag of results with some misses, some beats and most of them meeting expectations.

Finally the reaction to today’s US employment figures might depend less on the actual results than on the fact that these figures will be out of the way now and the market will be fully able to focus on the US earnings season ahead. With the Fed only having announced tapering their bond purchase and their plans concerning this for the months ahead in mid-December it is unlikely that one set of numbers especially if they don’t surprise in a major way will have much of an impact on what the Fed’s next move will likely be.

Thank you.

Kind regards

Markus Huber | Senior Sales-Trader/Senior Analyst
Peregrine & Black

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Vendredi 10 Janvier 2014