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Commentaires de Cass Business School sur le plan d'aides de 750 milliards d'euros

Geoffrey Wood, Professeur d’Economie à Cass Business School, émet quelques réserves sur le plan de secours de 750 milliards d’euros de prêts pour sauver la zone euro. Vous trouverez ci-dessous son commentaire en anglais :

‪"The financial package is a sticking plaster which creates a moral hazard for southern European countries. The next six to twelve months will be safe if there is a strong cyclical upturn but the problems will still be lurking underneath the surface.

Ultimately, the package is not sustainable because there can only be fiscal union if there is monetary union; historically, there has never been a monetary union which isn't a fiscal union which has worked. Brussels has pushed this package through too quickly, the political difficulties of getting large countries to commit to fiscal union within a relatively short time frame must not be underestimated, and it would also require a revision of the Maastricht Treaty by way of unanimity.

‪The question of inflation must also be considered. At the moment there is low inflation across the eurozone, but inflation will increase and government debt will have to be bought and there is no mechanism to capitalise the European Central Bank. There are three key problems which have not been widely discussed or dealt with in relation to this :
- there is no central fiscal authority to deal with fiscal fluctuations;
- there are divergent productivity trends in the eurozone - consider the difference between Germany and Greece;
- the ECB is set up to deal with liquidity shortages, not capital shortages.

In light of this, why have European governments agreed to fund the rescue package ? German and French banks are more exposed to Greek debt than other countries, therefore it's in the interests of the countries at the heart of this deal to ensure Greece is aided. But how long is Germany willing to bail out Greece and how long will it take before the markets also start to worry about this ? What happens next is impossible to predict, but in the mean time Brussels is winning control over the tax and spending policy of every country in the eurozone."

Cass Business School

Mercredi 19 Mai 2010

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