ETX Capital calls the FTSE 100 +92, DAX +110 and CAC-40 +70.
European stock markets are set to shoot higher today, boosted by favourable news out the EU summit. Leaders have drummed up measures to ease worries over sovereign debt and banking troubles. Leaders pledged to allow direct recapitalization of euro-zone banks and to open access to the region's rescue funds to countries not already receiving assistance.
They also agreed that the ESM will not have senior creditor status when it takes over the loans granted to Spain for its banks. These measures have been welcomed by Asian markets overnight. Commodity prices have also been kicked higher, while the German September bund contract has dropped 1.34, indicating that risk is firmly back on the table.
The market awaits for more headlines as the second day of the summit gets underway – in terms of data, eyes are on eurozone harmonized CPI and the Chicago PMIs.
Ishaq Siddiqi - Market Strategist - ETX Capital - www.etxcapital.com
European equities are trading sharply higher this morning after intense negotiations between EU leaders lasting till early morning rather surprisingly yielded an agreement that the EU will not insist on having preferred creditor status on the loans which will be given to Spain for their troubled banking sector.
Furthermore it was also agreed on that once a European banking supervisor has been set up that banks who are in trouble could receive money directly from the rescue funds. Both things are important in regard to that aid to banks could be delivered much quicker when needed and also countries already in trouble because of excessive debt and high deficits wouldn’t be forced to take on any aid given to banks on their own balance sheets.
Both not insisting on preferred creditor status and being able to provide banks with aid directly make banks and the countries themselves more attractive for potential investors as in case a bank gets into trouble they won’t be the only ones stuck with potential losses instead the burden will be equally shared with other creditors including individual countries.
It needs to be seen however if these no developments and measures are indeed enough to calm markets long-term with periphery bond yields establishing a firm downward trend or if relief is only temporary and mainly based on the fact that expectations have been so low that the summit will yield anything at all, that the slightest sign of that the EU is taking the situation serious and is trying to fight the crisis results in a sharp bounce to the upside.
In the end much still needs to be done, neither will be the 120 Billion Euros being made available to boost growth and jobs enough to make a serious impact nor have any measures been taken and agreed on yet which would ensure that countries plagued by high debt and deficits will indeed reign in their spending and get their finances in orders which in the end will be essential to regain investor’s trust that they will be able to service their debt in the future.
Markus Huber - Head of German HNW Trading - ETX Capital - www.etxcapital.com
Europe : 1 Crise : 0
Le sommet européen qui se tient à Bruxelles ces 28 et 29 juin ne sera donc pas un niéme sommet pour rien.
Des avancées significatives sur le Mécanisme européen de stabilité (MES) ont eu lieu pendant la nuit. Le MES verra bien le jour au mois de juillet et pourra refinancer directement les banques.
Italie et Espagne apparaissent comme les grands gagnants de cette nuit. Il faut dire que leur dirigeants respectifs, Mario Monti et Mariano Rajoy ont haussé le ton. Sous leur pression, l'agenda du conseil a été bouleversé. Prévu à l'origine à partir de vendredi midi, le sommet à 17 de la zone euro a commencé à minuit. Cinq heures plus tard, les Italiens et les Espagnols, pour lesquels les marchés de capitaux menaçaient de se fermer définitivement ont obtenu gain de cause.
Pour l’Espagne, les fonds de secours (MES, FESF) pourront recapitaliser les banques en difficulté sans alourdir les comptes de l'État. En contrepartie, un nouvel organe de supervision financière dans lequel "la Banque centrale européenne jouera pleinement son rôle", a expliqué le président de la Commission européenne, José Manuel Barroso.
Si Berlin a finalement cédé sur le MES, Rome et Madrid ont levé leurs réserves sur le "pacte pour la croissance et l'emploi". Celui-ci acte donc la mobilisation de 120 milliards d'euros par le biais des fonds structurels, de la Banque européenne d'investissement et de "project bonds" destinés à financer de grands chantiers afin de stimuler l'économie européenne.
Concernant l'Italie, la zone euro a donné son feu vert pour que les fonds de secours puissent acheter de la dette souveraine. Cette mesure phare a été obtenue sans contrepartie, mais à condition que le pays qui demande des aides soit déjà engagé sur la voie de la discipline budgétaire et des réformes. Reste à savoir quand vont se concrétiser ces décisions. En tout cas, les marchés n’ont pas attendu et les effets de ces annonces matinales ont été immédiats sur l’euro, les indices et les taux.
Du côté des changes, l’euro a bondi de 200 pips face au dollar passant d’un plus bas à 1.24 à 1.26 sur les marchés asiatiques. A l’ouverture des marchés en Europe, les indices qui progressent d’une manière généralisée (de 3 à 5%) avec une progression de toutes les valeurs bancaires et cycliques en tête.
Enfin, le vrai curseur de la réussite sera la détente des taux d'emprunt de l'Espagne et de l’Italie qui devront quitter la zone dangereuse des 6% pour refluer significativement.
Fabrice Cousté, DG de CMC Markets France - www.cmcmarkets.fr
At midday in London, appetite for risk across global markets continues to grow, after EU leaders agreed to ease repayment rules for emergency loans to Spanish banks and relax conditions on potential help for Italy at a summit in Brussels.
Stocks are propelled by the latest measures to rescue the EMU, while euro rises to eight month highs. The yields on both Spanish and Italian 10-year bonds pulled back, while commodity prices vaulted higher. A shift out of safe havens such as government bonds weighed sharply on the September German bunds contract.
The first day of the summit saw euro-area leaders agree to drop the condition that emergency loans to Spanish banks give their governments preferred creditor status. EU President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters after a summit that banks can also be recapitalized directly with funds rather than going through governments. This will provide a significant boost to the periphery, with assistance available without additional conditionality.
Although this won’t dissolve long-term structural problems, it does make Spanish banks and also Spain even more interesting for investors and less risky, which is reflected already in a sharp decline of the Spanish bond yields today. For European banks in highly indebted countries, it would be in their best interest to recover as quickly as possible so that the chance of a default is reduced, since banks themselves have a lot of government bonds in the portfolio of individual countries.
Despite the positive news here for the wider banking sector, rumblings in the UK financial industry prompts continued caution today. The FSA will make announcement today on its investigation into claims banks improperly sold interest-rate derivatives to small businesses. Shares in Barclays were again struggling today, down around 1%. CEO Bob Diamond has agreed to appear before MPs at a hearing next month to explain the manipulation around LIBOR
Looking ahead, Chicago PMIs and the University of Michigan confidence release will be in focus. US stock futures are currently indicating a strong open, with ETX Capital seeing the DOW up around 145 points and the S&P500 higher by around 20 points. The second day of the EU summit will be the centre point of attention today, with markets hoping for more magical measures by leaders.
Ishaq Siddiqi - Market Strategist - ETX Capital - www.etxcapital.com