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Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - July 19, 12 (6th update)


Markets, Ratings and Rates - July 19, 12.




Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - July 19, 12 (6th update)















MARKETS by ETX Capital and RATINGS by Thomson Reuters (http://www.analystratings.net)

09:00 A.M
ETX Capital calls the FTSE 100 up 22 points, the DAX up 40 points and the CAC-40 up 24 points.

European markets are to open higher today, tracking healthy gains on Wall Street overnight. Upbeat remarks on the US economy by Fed head Ben Bernanke yesterday support the risk-on tone across global markets, while better-than-expected earnings from US companies such as Intel and Honeywell International also lifts spirits. Furthermore, the Fed’s Beige Book suggested that growth was “modest to moderate” and US housing starts jumped up by 6.9% in June, confirming the recovery in the US housing sector. The encouraging tone out of the US has helped Asian markets register decent gains overnight, together with ongoing hopes of further stimulus by China. Looking ahead to the European session, attention will be on a Spanish bonds auction after the country’s 10-year bond yields rose sharply yesterday on news that Spanish bad bank loans continued to rise. Eyes will also be on the German Bundestag’s vote on EFSF aid to Spanish bank. In regards to economic data, attention will be on euro zone current account figures and UK retail sales.

Ishaq Siddiqi - Market Strategist - ETX Capital - www.etxcapital.com

10:30 A.M
Equity Briefing: Upgrades and Downgrades for July 18th: KMT, LEA, LNC, LNEGY, LPNT, MBFI, MD, MET, MGA, MTOR
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:

Jefferies Group downgraded shares of Kennametal Inc. (NYSE: KMT) from a buy rating to a hold rating.
JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on shares of Lear Co. (NYSE: LEA). They issued a neutral rating on the stock.
UBS AG initiated coverage on shares of Lincoln National Co. (NYSE: LNC). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Goldman Sachs upgraded shares of LINDE AG S/SDR (NASDAQ: LNEGY) from a neutral rating to a buy rating.
Susquehanna downgraded shares of Lifepoint Hospitals (NASDAQ: LPNT) from a positive rating to a neutral rating.
Sterne Agee downgraded shares of MB Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ: MBFI) from a buy rating to a neutral rating.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Mednax Services Inc (NYSE: MD) from a hold rating to a sell rating.
UBS AG initiated coverage on shares of MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on shares of Magna International Inc. (NYSE: MGA). They issued an underweight rating on the stock.
JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on shares of Meritor (NASDAQ: MTOR). They issued a neutral rating on the stock.
Compass Point upgraded shares of NCR Corp. (NYSE: NCR) from a neutral rating to a buy rating. Compass Point now has a $30.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $24.00.
MKM Partners upgraded shares of Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. (NYSE: OEH) from a neutral rating to a buy rating.
Dahlman Rose initiated coverage on shares of Ocean Rig Udw Inc. (NASDAQ: ORIG). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $24.00 price target.
Jefferies Group upgraded shares of Oshkosh Truck (NYSE: OSK) from a hold rating to a buy rating.
UBS AG initiated coverage on shares of Principal Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: PFG). They issued a neutral rating on the stock.
Jefferies Group downgraded shares of Parker-Hannifin Co. (NYSE: PH) from a buy rating to a hold rating.

10:30 A.M
Equity Briefing: Upgrades and Downgrades for July 18th: PRKR, PRU, PSX, PVA, PWE, RDS-A, REPYY, RNST, ROVI
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:

Ladenburg Thalmann initiated coverage on shares of ParkerVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRKR). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $5.00 price target.
UBS AG initiated coverage on shares of Prudential Financial, Inc. (NYSE: PRU). They issued a neutral rating on the stock.
Argus initiated coverage on shares of Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $43.00 price target.
Stifel Nicolaus downgraded shares of Penn Virginia (NYSE: PVA) from a buy rating to a hold rating.
RBC Capital downgraded shares of Penn West Energy Trust (NYSE: PWE) from an outperform rating to a sector perform rating. Their analysts now have a $17.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $25.00.
Barclays Capital downgraded shares of Penn West Energy Trust (NYSE: PWE) from an equalweight rating to an underweight rating.
RBC Capital downgraded shares of Royal Dutch Shell (NASDAQ: RDS-A) from a top pick rating to a sector perform rating.
RBC Capital upgraded shares of Repsol YPF SA (NASDAQ: REPYY) from a sector perform rating to a top pick rating.
Sterne Agee upgraded shares of Renasant Corp. (NASDAQ: RNST) from an underperform rating to a neutral rating.
Barrington Research downgraded shares of Rovi Corp (NASDAQ: ROVI) from an outperform rating to a market perform rating.
JPMorgan Chase downgraded shares of Rovi Corp (NASDAQ: ROVI) from an overweight rating to a neutral rating.
Cowen downgraded shares of Rovi Corp (NASDAQ: ROVI) from an outperform rating to a neutral rating.
BMO Capital Markets downgraded shares of Rovi Corp (NASDAQ: ROVI) from an outperform rating to a market perform rating.
Piper Jaffray downgraded shares of Rovi Corp (NASDAQ: ROVI) from an overweight rating to a neutral rating.
UBS AG initiated coverage on shares of StanCorp Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: SFG). They issued a sell rating on the stock.
Bank of America initiated coverage on shares of Shutterfly (NASDAQ: SFLY). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $40.00 price target.

10:30 A.M
Equity Briefing: Upgrades and Downgrades for July 18th: SKS, SPLS, SPN, TEN, TIF, TLM, TOWR, TRW, TSLA, TWI
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:

Goldman Sachs downgraded shares of Saks Inc (NYSE: SKS) from a neutral rating to a sell rating.
UBS AG downgraded shares of Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) from a buy rating to a neutral rating.
Wells Fargo & Co. initiated coverage on shares of Sup Energy Svcs (NYSE: SPN). They issued an outperform rating on the stock.
RBC Capital initiated coverage on shares of Sup Energy Svcs (NYSE: SPN). They issued a sector perform rating on the stock and set a $23.00 price target.
JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on shares of Tenneco Inc. (NYSE: TEN). They issued an overweight rating on the stock.
Goldman Sachs upgraded shares of Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) from a neutral rating to a buy rating.
RBC Capital downgraded shares of Talisman Energy Inc (NYSE: TLM) from an outperform rating to a sector perform rating. Their analysts now have a $14.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $17.00.
Robert W. Baird downgraded shares of Tower International Inc (NASDAQ: TOWR) from an outperform rating to a neutral rating. Their analysts now have a $11.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $18.00.
JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on shares of Tower International Inc (NASDAQ: TOWR). They issued an underweight rating on the stock.
JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on shares of TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. (NYSE: TRW). They issued an overweight rating on the stock.
Wunderlich downgraded shares of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) from a buy rating to a sell rating. Their analysts now have a $28.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $49.00.
Jefferies Group downgraded shares of Titan International Inc (Illinois) (NYSE: TWI) from a buy rating to a hold rating.
Susquehanna downgraded shares of Universal Health Services (NYSE: UHS) from a positive rating to a neutral rating.
UBS AG initiated coverage on shares of Unum Group (NYSE: UNM). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on shares of Visteon Co. (NYSE: VC). They issued a neutral rating on the stock.
Susquehanna downgraded shares of Vanguard Health Syst (NYSE: VHS) from a positive rating to a neutral rating.

10:30 A.M
Equity Briefing: Upgrades and Downgrades for July 18th: VMW, VMW, VNET, VPRT, WFM, WTR
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:

Drexel Hamilton upgraded shares of VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) to a buy rating.
Needham & Company reiterated its buy rating on shares of VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW).
Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage on shares of 21Vianet (NASDAQ: VNET). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $16.00 price target.
Bank of America downgraded shares of VistaPrint (NASDAQ: VPRT) to an underperform rating.
Williams Capital downgraded shares of Whole Foods Market (NYSE: WFM) from a buy rating to a hold rating.
Hilliard Lyons downgraded shares of Aqua America (NYSE: WTR) from a long rating to a term buy rating.
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its buy rating on shares of Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN).
Compass Point reiterated its sell rating on shares of Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN).

11:00 A.M
Les CDS souverains : le miroir le plus fidèle de la solvabilité des pays !

Les tensions des marchés d’obligations souveraines imposent une nouvelle grille de lecture.
Afin d’anticiper avec plus de justesse et de rapidité les sources de risque, l’évolution du marché des CDS souverains (Crédit Default Swaps) livre aujourd’hui des enseignements bien plus pertinents que les ratings attribués par les agences.

Les accès de stress des marchés d’obligations souveraines, quasi-inédits avant ces trois dernières années, justifient l’aversion au risque des investisseurs qui recherchent exclusivement les emprunts les plus sûrs. Difficile toutefois d’apprécier à sa juste valeur le réel niveau de risque des dettes souveraines. La crise européenne a permis aux investisseurs d’éprouver les limites du système d’évaluation des agences de notation, qui ne reflète plus de façon fiable et cohérente la qualité de crédit des Etats. La question n’est évidemment pas de savoir si le rôle des agences de notation vis-à-vis des émetteurs de dette est légitime, mais plutôt s’il n’existe pas des indicateurs de mesure plus pertinents. Une nouvelle lecture s’impose.

Avant la crise des subprimes en 2008, puis des dettes souveraines en Europe qui sévit depuis 2010, il était aisé d’identifier les pays les plus sûrs : les investisseurs se tournaient vers l’une des grandes agences de notation et n’avaient qu’à retenir les émetteurs disposant de la note la plus élevée possible (« AAA »). La crise des subprimes de 2008 a totalement changé la donne, lorsque les investisseurs ont découvert pour la première fois que leurs investissements pourtant notés « AAA », étaient en réalité très risqués, adossés à des crédits hypothécaires de très mauvaise qualité. Deux ans plus tard, la crise de la dette souveraine européenne, a été une nouvelle désillusion pour les investisseurs, pris de vitesse par la recrudescence du risque sur des crédits pourtant réputés d’excellente qualité. Et la détérioration des marchés obligataires s’est accélérée. Bon nombre des dégradations de notes souveraines est survenu très tardivement, au cours des derniers mois. Par effet de contagion, les « downgrades » successifs des dettes grecque, portugaise ou irlandaise ont fini par impacté les pays « cœur » de la zone Euro.

Pour anticiper avec plus de justesse et de rapidité ces nouvelles sources de risque, l’évolution du marché des CDS souverains (Crédit Default Swaps) nous livre aujourd’hui des enseignements bien plus pertinents que les ratings attribués par les agences. Prenons les primes de CDS à 5 ans et regardons ce qu’elles nous révèlent sur la qualité des dettes allemande, française et norvégienne. Pour l’agence Moody’s, la dette norvégienne est notée « AAA », comme celle de l’Allemagne et de la France. Pour S&P, seules la Norvège et l’Allemagne bénéficient de la note suprême, pas la France. En revanche, au regard des CDS à 5 ans, la Norvège apparaît de loin comme le pays le moins risqué. La « prime d’assurance » requise pour couvrir un défaut éventuel est beaucoup plus faible que celle de l’Allemagne, et, à fortiori, de la France. Le CDS de l’Allemagne (75 points de base, au 17 juillet 2012) est ainsi 2,3 fois plus cher que celui de la Norvège (32 pdb), le CDS de la France l’est 5 fois plus (161 pdb). De quoi remettre en question le statut de valeur refuge ultime du Bund allemand.

Par ailleurs, si le système d’évaluation des agences a tendance à interpréter avec retard la réalité des marchés de taux, les indications fournies par les primes de CDS sont généralement annonciatrices des développements sur les marchés obligataires. Cela a été notamment le cas pour la dette espagnole, dont le CDS à 5 ans a connu des poussées de fièvres successives, bien en amont de chaque dégradation de sa note : par exemple, les CDS espagnols se sont fortement tendus de mars à novembre 2011 (200 à plus de 400 pdb), reflet anticipé d’un regain de tension sur les taux ibériques, qui ont effectivement grimpés de 5.6% à 6.7% en l’espace de 5 mois (taux à 10 ans). Mais la dégradation de la note espagnole par S&P, de AA- à A, n’est survenue que mi-janvier 2012, alors même que les CDS et les taux espagnols refluaient depuis début décembre 2011. Si les CDS sont des instruments d’investissement souvent décriés, la bonne lecture de leur évolution peut permettre aux investisseurs de réaliser un « bond-picking » éclairé !

Ce texte est signé Marc Olivier, DG France de Nordea Investment Funds

04:00 P.M
Regional markets have posted modest gains today on the back of a stronger tone out of the US and the EFSF’s assistance to Spain. The better tone today has been driven by both market-beating macro and earnings from the US and Fed head Bernanke’s yesterday saying the US isn’t slipping back into a recession, boosting risk appetite. Hopes for central bank easing remain a dominant theme in markets, with market participants expecting the Fed and China’s central bank to prop up ailing economies in the near-term.

Despite a disappointing Spanish bond auction in which the country’s yields again rose while demand fell, headlines stating that the EFSF will set aside aid funds to buy Spanish bonds have kicked the markets higher. The EFSF will have to facilities for bond buys and will be able to buy in Spanish primary and secondary markets. Spain however would have to make a separate request to use EFSF bond buying facility, but the EFSF will be able to buy Spanish subordinated notes. These headlines have helped markets to recover after taking a hit on the weak bond auction earlier today. Adding to the positive tone was a strong French bond auction which saw solid demand with record-low yield on five year debt.

Estimate beating corporate earnings have also encouraged the market further, indicating that despite the European financial crisis, corporates are bringing in profits. US tech giant IBM raised FY operating earnings outlook, while in Europe, both Akzo Nobel and Electrolux have pleased with results. Surprisingly, Nokia shares are up following 2Q results. The struggling handset maker reported 2Q sales of EUR7.5 billion and net cash of EUR102 million. Looking ahead, attention will be on US economic data, with weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, leading indicators and the Philly Fed. ETX Capital currently sees the DJIA opening up 56 points and the S&P 500 up six points.

Ishaq Siddiqi - Market Strategist - ETX Capital - www.etxcapital.com

05:30 P.M
Regional markets are on course to end the day in an upbeat fashion, as sentiment improved following this week’s raft of strong earnings and progress made by leaders on taming the European crisis. Earnings today from Electrolux, IBM, Akzo Nobel have all fuelled hopes that the corporate sector continues to grow. Although Morgan Stanley’s 2Q profits plunged 50%, markets maintained their cool in Europe.

The risk-on tone was supported by news that the EFSF will set aside funds to buy Spanish government bonds. The EFSF will provide Spain with three separate facilities, to be used to buy bonds in primary and secondary markets, and subordinated notes. Additionally, EU leaders and the ECB were urged by the IMF to act aggressively to prevent the crisis from spreading. As such, markets are hopeful that leaders will stand united in stopping contagion of the crisis.

Today’s price action can also be attributed to a rebound following recent weakness. The UK’s FTSE 100 index is up around 2% for the week, while France’s CAC-40 is up around 4% and Germany’s DAX outperforming, up around 5.2%. Tomorrow could be another stellar day for European indices heading into the weekend given that corporate data continues to paint a brighter picture of the US.

Today’s US macro readings haven’t been too great for investors, painting a mixed picture. Weekly jobless benefits jumped to 386,000 last week, while sales of previously occupied homes unexpectedly fell in June. By contrast, the Philadelphia Fed's July business index improved to -12.9 from -16.6 in June. Looking to tomorrow’s agenda, eyes will be on Germany’s PPI data and UK public finances.

Ishaq Siddiqi - Market Strategist - ETX Capital - www.etxcapital.com

STATISTICS of the day

GERMANY
1.9 million people working in transportation and storage
Transportation and storage by economic sectors

In the economic sector “transportation and storage”, just under 1.9 million people in 87,550 enterprises achieved a total turnover of Euro 251.7 billion in 2010. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the number of persons employed in 2010 thus was up 1.9% on 2009. Turnover increased 8.9% in the same period.

More

SUISSE
Hausse de la production dans l’industrie

Selon les résultats provisoires de l'Office fédéral de la statistique (OFS), la production dans l’industrie a augmenté de 1,4% au 1er trimestre 2012 par rapport au même trimestre de l'année précédente. Les chiffres d'affaires ont diminué de 0,7%. Les entrées de commandes ont baissé de 3,9% tandis que le portefeuille de commandes s’est bonifié de 4,7%.

SUISSE
La croissance des investissements dans la construction se poursuit

Selon les résultats provisoires de la statistique de la construction établie par l’Office fédéral de la statistique (OFS) pour 2011, les dépenses dans la construction se sont accrues de 4,7% en termes nominaux par rapport à l'année précédente pour atteindre 59,5 milliards de francs. Le renchérissement étant estimé à 2,2% dans la construction en 2011, les dépenses dans ce secteur ont en fait progressé de 2,5% en termes réels. Les projets de construction annoncés pour l’année 2012 laissent entrevoir une nouvelle augmentation des dépenses en termes nominaux.

EURO AREA
May 2012 compared with April 2012
Production in construction up by 0.1% in euro area
Up by 1.6% in the EU27

In the construction sector, seasonally adjusted production1 rose by 0.1% in the euro area2 (EA17) and by 1.6% in
the EU272 in May 2012, compared with the previous month. In April 20123, production decreased by 3.7% and
6.9% respectively.
Compared with May 2011, production in May 2012 dropped by 8.4% in the euro area and by 6.9% in the EU27.
These estimates are released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.


RATES

Tableau de bord financier - Financial Dashboard

Cotations, indices et taux. Mise à jour quotidienne par Finyear.
Quotations, indices and rates. Updated daily by Finyear.

Link : http://www.finyear.com/Tableau-de-bord-financier-Financial-Dashboard_a15066.html


Jeudi 19 Juillet 2012
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