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Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - July 16, 12 (4th update)


Markets, Ratings and Rates - July 16, 12.




Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - July 16, 12 (4th update)









MARKETS

10:30 A.M

After having ended the week on a fairly strong note on Friday, European equity markets are trading little changed this morning with no major developments and news over the weekend to report.

With very little economic data scheduled for release this morning equity markets are expected to mostly remain range-bound with moderate profit-taking a possibility as some might consider Friday’s move to the upside somewhat overdone and partially caused by short-covering ahead of the weekend.

Later in the session all eyes will be on US retail sales expected to show a moderate rebound after last month’s decline, overall however with job growth continues to be meagre and economic growth sluggish at best consumers are likely to remain cautious and unwilling to undertake any major spending sprees.

Today it is Citigroup’s turn to report earnings potentially giving markets another boost with earnings from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo having been received rather well on Friday.

Markus Huber - Head of German HNW Trading - ETX Capital - www.etxcapital.com

12:30 A.M

Chinese Q2 GDP: disappointing, but not dismal

James Bilson, Economist, and King Fuei Lee, Head of Asia Equities, Singapore - 13 July 2012. SCHRODERS.

The Chinese economy grew 7.6% year on year (y/y) in the second quarter, below market expectations (Bloomberg consensus: 7.7%). This was a slowdown from the 8.1% recorded in the first quarter, and the slowest quarter for growth since the financial crisis – as well as the sixth consecutive decline since Q2 2010.

While a slightly disappointing reading, it is unlikely to be enough to prompt large-scale policy action: demand-tweaking and further market liberalisation appear to be the preferred options. In fact, real growth in the first half year, at 7.8%, remains above the official 2012 target of 7.5%.

The second quarter has had a strange mix of Chinese data. April’s severe downward surprises, such as industrial production and exports, sparked concerns over the health of the economy, while May’s rebound and active policymaking appeared to calm fears of an imminent hard landing. This week all the major statistics for June were published, with few significant surprises. The cooling of inflation to 2.2% was widely expected given the weakness in commodity and food prices.

This has given significant leeway to the People’s Bank of China to loosen its monetary stance, as evidenced by last week’s cut in the headline lending rate to 6% (from 6.31%).

Though we have seen wheat prices rise significantly in the past couple of weeks, thanks to the weather in the US, we believe inflation will continue to remain low and allow for further easing as the second half of the year progresses. This is likely to take the form of both interest rate and required reserve ratio cuts in our view (to 5.75% and 19% respectively by the end of the year). The pick up in May and June lending data suggest that this policy stimulus is beginning to feed through, and should support growth in the second half of the year.

On the external side, we saw a drop in Chinese export growth to 11.3% y/y (nominal), from 15.3% in May, led by a slowdown in exports to the US, which would seem consistent with the weaker ISM manufacturing survey and payroll numbers last week. In addition, after a positive blip in May, exports to the EU began to shrink in y/y terms again. Given the leading indicators currently coming from these regions, we would expect export growth in China to remain muted as we go through the third quarter.

June’s sharp fall in import growth, though driven in no small part by weak prices in commodities such as oil and copper, helped the Chinese record their largest second quarterly trade surplus in history. For those looking to Chinese consumption to drive the world economy out of the doldrums, this does not augur well.

A final data release which was of interest today was the electricity production. The 0.7% growth print in April caused great concern to those who use this as a first approximation for activity (though seasonal effects likely played a role). Despite a slight rebound in May, June’s flat y/y reading will do little to help. Excluding January 2012 (with the timing of the Chinese New Year distorting y/y data), this is the lowest reading since May 2009. Further weakness will be a warning of a more severe slowdown in Chinese activity, and is worth watching.

On balance, this week’s data has been in line with consensus, although we remain cautious. The Chinese authorities have firepower to stabilise the economic situation if necessary. But while growth slows, as opposed to collapses, they remain content to gradually ease policy to support growth rather than launching a 2009-style stimulus package, such as reductions in lending rates and speeding up infrastructure approvals. However, as the macro outlook in Europe appearing to deteriorate and the US beginning to show signs of weakness, we continue to believe the external sector will remain subdued. So while the recent upside surprises to lending and monetary aggregate numbers will be supportive in the latter part of the year, we believe the third quarter will see little rebound from the second. We maintain our below-consensus view for 2012 GDP after today’s reading, and we have nudged down our forecast from 7.9% to 7.8%, but continue to see this as a soft as opposed to hard landing.

King Fuei Lee, Head of Asia Equities, Singapore
While 7.6% economic growth is slower than what China has delivered over the last decade, it is in line with what policymakers had been indicating over the last year. It is also consistent with the Chinese economic growth model evolving from one that is investment-led to one that is more consumption-driven. The longer-term dynamics of urbanisation, industrialisation and positive demographics remain intact and should underpin structural economic progress over the next decade.

Within the Chinese market we favour companies playing into Chinese consumption while remaining cautious on sectors where overcapacity continues to weigh on prices and profitability.




RATINGS by Thomson Reuters (http://www.analystratings.net)

10:30 A.M
Equity Briefing: Stock Analysts' Downgrades for July 12th: AEC, DRWI, EW, FIS, N, SKS
A number of stocks were downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network:

Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC) was downgraded by analysts at Robert W. Baird from an "outperform" rating to a "neutral" rating. They now have a $16.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $20.00.
Corus Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: CJR) was downgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating.
Dean Foods Co (NYSE: DF) was downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs from a "buy" rating to a "neutral" rating. They now have a $17.00 price target on the stock.
DragonWave Inc (NASDAQ: DRWI) was downgraded by analysts at TD Securities from a "hold" rating to a "reduce" rating.
Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from an "outperform" rating to a "neutral" rating. They now have a $110.00 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Fidelity National Information Services (NYSE: FIS) was downgraded by analysts at Robert W. Baird from an "outperform" rating to a "neutral" rating. They now have a $38.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $40.00. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDXX) was downgraded by analysts at Stephens from an "equal weight" rating to an "underweight" rating.
Infosys Technologies Ltd (NASDAQ: INFY) was downgraded by analysts at Barclays Capital from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating.
NetSuite Inc. (NYSE: N) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from an "outperform" rating to a "neutral" rating.
Gazprom OAO (NASDAQ: OGZPY) was downgraded by analysts at ING Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating.
PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) was downgraded by analysts at MKM Partners from a "buy" rating to a "neutral" rating.
Parkway Prop (NYSE: PKY) was downgraded by analysts at Stifel Nicolaus from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating.
The Ryland Group, Inc. (NYSE: RYL) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from an "outperform" rating to a "neutral" rating. They now have a $25.50 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGM) was downgraded by analysts at UBS AG from a "neutral" rating to a "sell" rating.
Saks Inc (NYSE: SKS) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from a "neutral" rating to an "underperform" rating. They now have a $120.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $9.00.
Saks Inc (NYSE: SKS) was downgraded by analysts at Bank of America from a "neutral" rating to an "underperform" rating.
Total System Services, Inc. (NYSE: TSS) was downgraded by analysts at Barclays Capital from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating

10:35 P.M
Equity Briefing: Stock Analysts' Upgrades for July 13th: DHI, HOT, KBH, KMP, MRK, WLL
A number of stocks were upgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network:

CMS Energy (NYSE: CMS) was upgraded by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co. from a "market perform" rating to an "outperform" rating. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG) was upgraded by analysts at Robert W. Baird from a "neutral" rating to an "outperform" rating.
CARREFOUR SA UNSP/ADR (NASDAQ: CRERY) was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup from a "sell" rating to a "neutral" rating.
D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI) was upgraded by analysts at MKM Partners from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating.
Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: DLR) was upgraded by analysts at Jefferies Group from a "hold" rating to a "buy" rating.
France Telecom SA (NYSE: FTE) was upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank from a "sell" rating to a "hold" rating.
Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) was upgraded by analysts at MKM Partners from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating.
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) was upgraded by analysts at MKM Partners from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating.
Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating. They now have a $39.00 price target on the stock.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup from a "sell" rating to a "neutral" rating.
Lennar Co. (NYSE: LEN) was upgraded by analysts at MKM Partners from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating.
Merck & Co Inc (NYSE: MRK) was upgraded by analysts at MP Advisors from a "market perform" rating to an "outperform" rating. They now have a $45.00 price target on the stock.
Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) was upgraded by analysts at Capital One from a "neutral" rating to an "add" rating.
Bank of the Ozarks (NASDAQ: OZRK) was upgraded by analysts at Wunderlich from a "hold" rating to a "buy" rating. They now have a $37.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $32.00.
Range Resources (NYSE: RRC) was upgraded by analysts at Robert W. Baird from a "neutral" rating to an "outperform" rating. They now have a $72.00 price target on the stock.
VIVENDI ORD (NASDAQ: VIVEF) was upgraded by analysts at BNP Paribas from an "underperform" rating to a "neutral" rating.
Vivendi-ADR (NASDAQ: VIVHY) was upgraded by analysts at BNP Paribas from an "underperform" rating to a "neutral" rating.
Whiting Petroleum Co. (NYSE: WLL) was upgraded by analysts at Macquarie from a "neutral" rating to an "outperform" rating.

10.40 P.M
Equity Briefing: Analysts' Upgrades and Downgrades for Friday, July 13th: AEC, ARRS, ARTC, CALD, CAT, CBB
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:

Robert W. Baird downgraded shares of Associated Estates (AEC) from an outperform rating to a neutral rating. Their analysts now have a $16.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $20.00.
Maxim Group initiated coverage on shares of Arris Group, Inc. (ARRS). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $17.00 price target.
Northcoast Research upgraded shares of ArthroCare Co. (ARTC) from a neutral rating to a buy rating.
ThinkEquity initiated coverage on shares of Callidus Software Inc. (CALD). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Credit Suisse lowered its price target on shares of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) to $120.00.
Benchmark Co. reiterated its buy rating on shares of Cincinnati Bell Inc (CBB). They have a $6.00 price target on the stock.
Wells Fargo & Co. upgraded shares of CMS Energy (CMS) from a market perform rating to an outperform rating. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Bank of America initiated coverage on shares of Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (CORT). They issued an underperform rating on the stock.
ThinkEquity initiated coverage on shares of Salesforce.com (CRM). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $155.00 price target.
ThinkEquity initiated coverage on shares of Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Goldman Sachs downgraded shares of Dean Foods Co (DF) from a buy rating to a neutral rating. Their analysts now have a $17.00 price target on the stock.
MKM Partners upgraded shares of D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) from a neutral rating to a buy rating.
Jefferies Group upgraded shares of Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR) from a hold rating to a buy rating.
Barclays Capital reiterated its overweight rating on shares of Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI).
TD Securities downgraded shares of DragonWave Inc (DRWI) from a hold rating to a reduce rating. Their analysts now have a $3.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $4.00.
Raymond James upgraded shares of Cal Dive International, Inc. (DVR) from a market perform rating to an outperform rating.

10:45 P.M
Equity Briefing: Analysts' Upgrades and Downgrades for Friday, July 13th: ECTE, ELLI, EMKR, EW, FFIV, FIS, FN
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:

Wunderlich initiated coverage on shares of Echo Therapeutics (ECTE). They issued a hold rating on the stock and set a $1.75 price target.
ThinkEquity initiated coverage on shares of Ellie Mae (ELLI). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Needham & Company initiated coverage on shares of Emcore Corporation (EMKR). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Credit Suisse downgraded shares of Edwards Lifesciences (EW) from an outperform rating to a neutral rating. Their analysts now have a $110.00 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
ThinkEquity reiterated its buy rating on shares of F5 Networks (FFIV). They have a $122.00 price target on the stock.
Robert W. Baird downgraded shares of Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) from an outperform rating to a neutral rating. Their analysts now have a $38.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $40.00. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Needham & Company initiated coverage on shares of Fabrinet Ordinary (FN). They issued a hold rating on the stock.
Needham & Company initiated coverage on shares of Finisar (FNSR). They issued a hold rating on the stock.
Stifel Nicolaus initiated coverage on shares of First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (FR). They issued a hold rating on the stock and set a $50.00 price target.
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of France Telecom SA (FTE) from a sell rating to a hold rating.
Raymond James downgraded shares of Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) from a strong-buy rating to an outperform rating.
Ladenburg Thalmann initiated coverage on shares of Great Plains Engy (GXP). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Maxim Group initiated coverage on shares of Harmonic (HLIT). They issued a hold rating on the stock.
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on shares of HeartWare (HTWR). They issued a neutral rating on the stock.
Stephens downgraded shares of IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (IDXX) from an equal weight rating to an underweight rating.
Barclays Capital downgraded shares of Infosys Technologies Ltd (INFY) from an overweight rating to an equal weight rating.

10:45 P.M
Equity Briefing: Analysts' Upgrades and Downgrades for Friday, July 13th: NPTN, NVDQ, NWY, OCLR
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:
Needham & Company initiated coverage on shares of Neophotonics Corp. (NPTN). They issued a hold rating on the stock.
Wunderlich initiated coverage on shares of Novadaq Technologies Inc. (NVDQ). They issued a hold rating on the stock and set a $8.00 price target.
Brean Murray reiterated its buy rating on shares of New York & Company, Inc. (NWY).
Needham & Company initiated coverage on shares of Oclaro, Inc. (OCLR). They issued a hold rating on the stock.
ING Group downgraded shares of Gazprom OAO (OGZPY) from a buy rating to a hold rating.
Wunderlich upgraded shares of Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) from a hold rating to a buy rating. Wunderlich now has a $37.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $32.00.
Global Hunter Securities initiated coverage on shares of Pacific Drilling S (PACD). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $12.00 price target.
Compass Point initiated coverage on shares of Verifone (PAY). They issued a neutral rating on the stock and set a $38.00 price target.
Sanford C. Bernstein initiated coverage on shares of Pharmacyclics, Inc. (PCYC). They issued a market perform rating on the stock and set a $51.00 price target. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
MKM Partners downgraded shares of PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) from a buy rating to a neutral rating. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Stifel Nicolaus downgraded shares of Parkway Prop (PKY) from a buy rating to a hold rating.
Lazard Capital initiated coverage on shares of Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Bank of America initiated coverage on shares of Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $60.00 price target.
Robert W. Baird upgraded shares of Range Resources (RRC) from a neutral rating to an outperform rating. Robert W. Baird now has a $72.00 price target on the stock.
Credit Suisse downgraded shares of The Ryland Group, Inc. (RYL) from an outperform rating to a neutral rating. Their analysts now have a $25.50 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Nomura reiterated its buy rating on shares of SAP Aktiengesellschaft (SAP).

05:00 A.M
Equity Briefing: Analysts' Upgrades and Downgrades for Friday, July 13th: SIGM, SKS, THOR, TITN, TJX, TSS, TWGP, UBNT, VIVEF, VMW, VRX, WLL, WNC
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:

UBS AG downgraded shares of Sigma Designs Inc. (SIGM) from a neutral rating to a sell rating.
Bank of America downgraded shares of Saks Inc (SKS) from a neutral rating to an underperform rating.
Goldman Sachs upgraded shares of Thoratec (thor) from a neutral rating to a buy rating. Goldman Sachs now has a $45.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $34.00.
Northcoast Research initiated coverage on shares of Titan Machinery (TITN). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Zacks reiterated its neutral rating on shares of TJX Companies Inc (TJX). They have a $46.00 price target on the stock.
Barclays Capital downgraded shares of Total System Services, Inc. (TSS) from an overweight rating to an equalweight rating. Their analysts now have a $26.00 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Zacks reiterated its neutral rating on shares of Tower Group Inc. (TWGP). They have a $22.00 price target on the stock.
Capstone initiated coverage on shares of Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT). They issued a buy rating on the stock and set a $18.00 price target.
BNP Paribas upgraded shares of VIVENDI ORD (VIVEF) from an underperform rating to a neutral rating.
UBS AG cut their EPS estimates on shares of VMware, Inc. (VMW). They now have a buy rating and a $125.00 price target on the stock.
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX). They issued a neutral rating on the stock.
Macquarie upgraded shares of Whiting Petroleum Co. (WLL) from a neutral rating to an outperform rating.
FBR Capital initiated coverage on shares of Wabash National Co. (WNC). They issued an outperform rating on the stock and set a $9.00 price target.

05:30 A.M
Equity Briefing: Analysts' Upgrades and Downgrades for Friday, July 13th: IPCM, IVAC, JDSU, JPM, KBH, KMI, KMP, KMT, LEN, LXK, MCRS, MITL, MOS, MPEL, MWV, N
A number of stocks were upgraded and downgraded by equities research analysts today, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network and Equity Briefing:

Dougherty & Co raised its price target on shares of IPC The Hospitalist (IPCM) from $45.00 to $50.00. They have a buy rating on the stock.
B. Riley downgraded shares of Intevac Inc (IVAC) from a buy rating to a neutral rating.
Needham & Company initiated coverage on shares of JDS Uniphase Co. (JDSU). They issued a hold rating on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Wells Fargo & Co. reiterated its outperform rating on shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
MKM Partners upgraded shares of KB Home (KBH) from a neutral rating to a buy rating. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Kinder Morgan (KMI) from a neutral rating to a buy rating. Citigroup now has a $39.00 price target on the stock.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (KMP) from a sell rating to a neutral rating.
Sidoti initiated coverage on shares of Kennametal Inc. (KMT). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
MKM Partners upgraded shares of Lennar Co. (LEN) from a neutral rating to a buy rating. They noted that the move was a valuation call.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its sell rating on shares of Lexmark International, Inc. (LXK).
Compass Point initiated coverage on shares of Micros Systems Inc (MCRS). They issued a neutral rating on the stock and set a $50.00 price target.
Cormark initiated coverage on shares of Mitel Networks Corp. (MITL). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Standpoint Research downgraded shares of The Mosaic Company (MOS) from a buy rating to a hold rating.
Janney Montgomery Scott initiated coverage on shares of Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (MPEL). They issued a buy rating on the stock.
Zacks reiterated its neutral rating on shares of MeadWestvaco Corp. (MWV). They have a $30.00 price target on the stock.
ThinkEquity initiated coverage on shares of NetSuite Inc. (N). They issued a hold rating on the stock.

STATISTICS

3:30 A.M
BELGIQUE: Balance commerciale déficitaire au mois d’avril 2012

La balance commerciale du mois d’avril 2012 enregistre un déficit 0,3 milliard d’euros soit une baisse de 0,1 milliard d’euros par rapport à avril 2011.
Les montants des exportations et des importations s’élèvent en avril respectivement à 19,8 et 20,1 milliards d’euros. Ceci représente, en comparaison de l’année précédente, une augmentation de 0,2 % pour les exportations et de 0,9 % pour les importations.

Si l’on compare les trois derniers mois à la période correspondante de l’année précédente, on constate que le volume des exportations (-4,0 %) a diminué moins rapidement que celui des importations (-6,3 %), conduisant à une évolution positive du taux de couverture de 2,5 %. Par contre, les termes de l’échange se détériorent de 2,5 %, les valeurs unitaires à l’exportation augmentant de 4,9 % alors que celles à l’importation progressent pour leur part de 7,6 %.

Les estimations rapides pour mai 2012 de la balance commerciale (tableau 2) affichent un léger surplus de 0,1 milliard d’euros. Le montant des exportations s’élève à 20,4 milliards d’euros et celui des importations à 20,3 milliards d’euros. Cela correspond à une variation de -5,7 % pour les exportations et de -8,6 % pour les importations par rapport à mai 2011.

Suite ici : http://www.nbb.be/doc/DQ/F/DQ3/HISTO/EFP1204.PDF

RATES

Tableau de bord financier - Financial Dashboard

Cotations, indices et taux. Mise à jour quotidienne par Finyear.
Quotations, indices and rates. Updated daily by Finyear.

Link : http://www.finyear.com/Tableau-de-bord-financier-Financial-Dashboard_a15066.html

Lundi 16 Juillet 2012
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