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Euro-zone economic outlook. Economic growth remains on stable path


L’Insee a présenté « Euro-zone economic outlook » pour la première fois le 16 avril 2004. Cette prévision est un travail conjoint de l’Insee, de l’Ifo à Munich et de l’Isae à Rome. Elle contient des estimations (pour le trimestre précédent) et des prévisions de court terme pour le trimestre en cours et à venir du PIB, de la consommation, de la production industrielle et de l’inflation dans la zone euro. La prévision est publiée le jour où Eurostat présente son estimation révisée des comptes nationaux trimestriels. La prochaine date de publication prévue pour « Euro-zone economic outlook » est le 12 avril 2007.




Real GDP in the euro-zone decelerated slightly in Q3 2006 (0.5%) after the strong increase registered in H1. The prospects for economic growth remain however positive. Real GDP is expected to rise by 0.7% in Q4 2006, followed by 0.3% in Q1 2007 and 0.5% in Q2. Industrial production should continue to expand, but at lower rates, owing to the expected slackening in world trade. Domestic demand is bound to exhibit resilience. Consumption should remain robust after a temporary slowdown in Q1 2007 associated with the German VAT hike. Investment should expand at a constant but still strong rate. On the technical assumption that oil prices stay within a range of USD 60-65 per barrel of Brent and that the dollar/euro exchange rate fluctuates around 1.30, consumer price inflation is expected to jump, reflecting the VAT rise in Germany, to 2.1% in Q1 2007 before decreasing to 1.7% in Q2.

Industrial production retains stable but lower growth rates
Industrial production in the euro-zone increased by 0.8% in Q3 2006, after the remarkable rise of 1.2% in Q2. The expansion of production was largely driven by the strong impulse in
Germany. In Italy, industrial production also recorded a slight positive performance whereas
by contrast it experienced a setback in France.
Recent readings of business surveys reflect some heterogeneity in the area. While in Germany the business climate has further improved, in France and in Italy it has been stable.
Industrial production in the euro-zone is expected to expand again but at lower growth rates in the coming quarters, mainly because of a slackening in world trade. Production should decelerate in Q4 2006 to a rate of 0.5%, and then evolve with a flat profile at rates of 0.4%
in Q1 2007 and 0.5% in Q2.

Real GDP growth with temporary dent
Real GDP slightly decelerated in Q3 2006 (+0.5%) after the very positive pace registered in H1; nevertheless, growth prospects remain sanguine. Domestic demand is likely to keep on
growing robustly, thereby dampening the slowdown in net exports that comes along with
the moderation of world economic expansion.
Perspectives of private consumption remain.....


Suite pour lecture : http://www.insee.fr/en/indicateur/analys_conj/archives/EZ_outlook.pdf
Source : www.insee.fr

Mardi 30 Janvier 2007
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