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Economy, Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - September 27, 12 (5th update)


Economy, Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - Daily news & daily views by Finyear.




Economy, Markets, Ratings, Statistics and Rates - September 27, 12 (5th update)








MARKETS, ECONOMY & STATISTICS - Commentaries of the day

Every day our commentaries keep you updated.


09:30 AM
MARKETS - Morning Call: European Markets Up In A Mild Rebound; Spanish Budget Plans Awaited - Ishaq Siddiqi ETX Capital


European stock markets are cautiously higher this morning, attempting to rebound after yesterday’s hefty losses. Any gains however are likely to be under threat given the civil unrest in Spain ahead of the government’s budget announcement. Traders are reluctant to make any bold moves ahead of the budget announcement which sees the country aiming to cut the budget deficit to 4.5% of GDP in 2013 from 6.3% of GDP in 2012.

Such a reduction would bring about harsh austerity measures for the country next year, but would gain approval by EU policy makers and the market alike which would be positive to risk-sentiment. The new budget plans will most likely be endorsed at the Eurogroup meeting early next month, paving the way for the ESM to finally come into play. That said, these measures could cause civil unrest in the country to intensify and we could see further political uncertainty in Spain in the near term.

Yesterday, Spanish 10-year bond yields rose sharply to stand around the 6.0% - not exactly the unsustainable highs around the 7% mark seen during the summer of this year, but uncomfortable still for the government. With the budget plans, we will also see the release of the Spanish bank stress tests – both announcements should give us further clarity over Spain’s next possible move, bailout request or not. Other than Spain today, we have a wealth of data with German labour numbers, UK and US 2Q GDP readings and euro zone confidence. Attention will also remain on Greece with its government set to announce its budget reduction plans to EU leaders tomorrow.

12:10 PM
MARKETS - Immobilier, construction et croissance aux Etats-Unis - Pierre Ciret, économiste chez Edmond de Rothschild AM


Suite dans le PDF ci-dessous (4 pages en Français).

01:00 AM
MARKETS - Mid Morning Comment: Traders Brace Themselves For Spanish Budget Plans - Ishaq Siddiqi ETX Capital


European financial markets are treading water today as investors refrain from taking on any bold positions as the Spanish government prepares to announce budget plans this afternoon. Spain’s PM Mariano Rajoy said he is committed to European integration and vowed to take necessary steps to get his country’s beleaguered finances back on track. The government are said to be looking to reduce the budget deficit to 4.5% GBP in 2013 from 6.2% in 2012 – ambitious given the high level on unemployment and dire state of the housing market amongst other issues.

PM Rajoy faces a difficult task to please EU policymakers and the Spanish public alike with austerity measures but in order to do this, the response must be balanced. However, we all know that tough austerity, although welcomed by EU governments [particularly Germany], will most undoubtedly be met with anger and protest by the general Spanish public. Already we have seen violent protests in the capital and even calls from the Catalonia region to gain independence from Spain. The tougher the measures, the more likely we are to see civil unrest intensify which would lead to political uncertainty, potential elections and the rise of anti-euro parties who would fight for a Spanish exit from the euro.

We saw this story unfold in Greece this summer and could see it unfold in Spain next summer. And, even if Rajoy delivers a budget package that would be welcomed by EU leaders and financial markets, underlying issues remain; enforcing austerity on a country facing a deep and protracted recession will lead to years of zero growth and hardship for the people. With that in mind, Spain will soon have little or no choice but to seek assistance from the ECB in order to be pulled out of this debt quicksand that continues to plague financial markets.

Attention also remains on the Greek government who will announce budget reduction plans to EU leaders tomorrow and like Spain will need to announce harsh austerity measures in order to get the green light for more funding by its international lenders. Budget plans from both countries should help dictate price action for next week, but for now, it’s all wait and see.

01:30 PM
STATISTICS - FRANCE - INSEE


Défaillances d’entreprises - Jugements d'ouverture de procédure rendus en avril 2012 (annonces publiées jusqu'en juillet 2012)
Les défaillances d'entreprises jugées au cours du mois d’avril 2012 sont en hausse par rapport au mois de mars 2012 (+1,9 %), en données corrigées des variations saisonnières (CVS) et du nombre de jours ouvrables (CJO).
Le nombre de défaillances jugées au cours des mois de février, mars et avril 2012 est en baisse par rapport aux mêmes mois un an auparavant (-4,1 %).
Plus : http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=71&date=20120927

01:30 PM
STATISTICS - GERMANY - Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)


Employment in August 2012: year-on-year growth continues
In August 2012, a total of 41.6 million persons were in employment whose place of residence was in Germany, according to provisional calculations of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The number of persons in employment thus was by 423,000 higher than in the same month a year earlier. The number of unemployed was about 2.31 million in August 2012, which was a decline of about 214,000 from August 2011.

Import prices in August 2012: +3.2% on August 2011
The index of import prices rose by 3.2% in August 2012 compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In July 2012 the year-on-year rate of change was +1.2%, in June 2012 it was +1.3%. From July 2012 to August 2012 the index rose by 1.3%.

perspectives_economiques_2.pdf Perspectives_Economiques.pdf  (211.33 Ko)


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Quotations, indices and rates. Updated daily by Finyear.

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Jeudi 27 Septembre 2012
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