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Déficits commerciaux & Exportations venues d'Asie


Le nouvel article de Robert Aliber, Professeur d'Economie Internationale et Finance à l'Université de Chicago Booth School of Business.




La montée de la Chine et plus généralement des pays asiatiques dans les échanges mondiaux est un débat qui agitent les consciences. A l’heure de la crise et des déficits commerciaux dans les « pays du Nord », la question de la responsabilité de ces pays dans la manipulation des marchés de l’import et de l’export se pose inévitablement.

L’objet de l’article de Robert Aliber,Time to stop the free riding, est précisément de répondre à ces interrogations sur les pratiques commerciales des pays d’Asie et leur influence sur les balances commerciales.

Robert Aliber, apporte à la fois son point de vue de Professeur en Finance et Economie Internationale à l’Université de Chicago Booth School of Business, et celui de citoyen sur un sujet qui concerne tous les pays Il propose notamment de recréer des emplois dans le secteur de la manufacture aux Etats-Unis en supprimant le déficit commercial, ce par la diminution des importations venues d’Asie.

A propos de l’University of Chicago Booth School of Business
L’University de Chicago Booth School of Business est l'une des « business schools » les plus prestigieuses au monde. Faculté « leader » incontestable et incontestée, elle se classe très régulièrement parmi le top dix et fréquemment parmi le top cinq des plus grandes écoles. Cette Faculté englobe bon nombre de disciplines prestigieuses et les diplômés issus de celle-ci occupent des postes stratégiques aux Etats-Unis et dans le monde entier.
La « Chicago Approach to Management Education » se distingue par la façon dont elle accroît la connaissance fondamentale, par sa rigueur et sa capacité d'adaptation aux challenges entrepreneuriaux. L'école propose des programmes MBA à temps plein ou partiel, un doctorat en administration (Ph.D.), une formation librement accessible et destinée aux futurs cadres et dirigeants (« open enrolment executive education ») et une formation personnalisée (« custom corporate education »).
Basée à Chicago, l’University de Chicago Booth School of Business possède deux autres campus à Londres et Singapour. Les effectifs sont cette année de 1 100 étudiants en MBA temps plein, 1 900 à temps partiel, dont 90 sur le Campus de Londres et 110 étudiants en doctorat d'administration (Ph. D.).
Par ailleurs, six membres de la Faculté ont été récompensés par des prix Nobel d'économie. Parmi les élèves les plus prestigieux, on peut citer entre autres James A. Rasulo, Senior Executive Vice Président de The Walt Disney Company, Bart Becht, PDG de Reckitt Benckiser plc, Brady Dougan, PDG du Crédit Suisse et David Booth, fondateur et co-PDG de Dimensional Fund Advisors. L’école porte son nom depuis 2008. www.chicagobooth.edu

Veuillez trouver, ci-dessous, l’article en question en version originale.

TIME TO STOP THE FREE RIDING IN ASIA by Robert Z. Aliber

The U.S. trade deficit and the accompanying loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs is the result of managed trade by China, in particular, as well as other Asia states. Here is a radical solution to returning manufacturing jobs to the U.S.

The single most important explanation for the U.S. unemployment rate of nine to eleven percent is that Americans spend $600 billion more a year for foreign goods than foreigners spend on U.S. goods. Most U.S. imports are of manufactured goods—autos, electronics, apparel, many of which are made or were once made in America. If foreigners spend $1 million more a year on U.S. goods, American employers will hire more workers. Each employee in U.S manufacturing on average produces $80,000 of goods a year. A reduction in the U.S. trade deficit of $1 million would lead to an increase in domestic employment of 12 plus workers. A reduction in the U.S. trade deficit of $1 billion means 12,500 more jobs in American manufacturing, and a reduction of $100 billion means 1,250,000 more jobs. If the U.S. trade deficit declined to $350 billion, the U.S. unemployment rate would fall by nearly four percentage points, and America would be at or close to full employment.

These estimates of the relationship between the trade deficit and domestic employment are ballpark; the actual values may differ depending on the estimates of the value added in the industries that would be primarily impacted by the decline in the deficit. If the reduction in the deficit resulted from primarily from an increase in exports, then the employment growth would be modestly smaller, since the value added per worker in the firms that produce U.S. exports is higher than $80,000.

The United States has a trade deficit primarily because other countries— especially those in Asia— have manipulated their trade policies and their currency policies to achieve trade surpluses because they want the expansion of jobs associated with growing their exports. China is extremely protectionist; its exports to the United States consistently are about five times its imports from the United States. China maintains an exceptionally low value for its currency so it can increase its exports of manufactured goods and provide employment for the millions that continue to move from the farms and villages to the factories and cities. General Motors produces Buicks in both Michigan and China—while the models are not quite identical, the U.S. made cars would sell for twenty to thirty percent less in Shanghai than the autos produced there. State owned enterprises in China follow a “Buy National” policy, they are reluctant to import if a comparable product is made at home—unless they want several samples so they can rip-off the technology.

The practice in many Asian countries is to maintain low values for their currencies as a way to stimulate employment and upgrading of labor skills.

At the global level, there is an adding-up problem, if as a group the Asian countries want and achieve trade surpluses, then some other countries must have the counter trade deficits. The United States has a unique role in the global economy, the U.S. trade balance adjusts to provide consistency for the trade balances of all other countries. If as a group these countries manage their trade and their currency intervention policies to achieve trade surplus, then by default the United States will have the counterpart trade deficits—and the associated job losses as cheap foreign imports undercut the prices charged by U.S. firms to cover their costs.

The claim in foreign capital that U.S. goods are not competitive in global markets is nonsense, as is evident from the comparisons of prices in U.S. department stores and auto showrooms abroad.

What then should the U.S. government do to rectify the loss of millions of jobs in U.S. manufacturing because of the “beggar thy neighbor policies” of its Asian trading partners? Initiatives should be adopted to induce these countries to reduce their trade surpluses to two percent of their GDPs. The countries can choose whether to allow their currencies to strengthen or to reduce tariffs and other trade limiting measures. If these countries persist with their protectionist policies, then the U.S. government should adopt an across the board tariff of ten percent on the imports from those countries that have exceptionally large trade surpluses.

Robert Z. Aliber is Emeritus Professor of International Finance at the Booth School of Business at The University of Chicago.
This article appeared originally in the Chicago Tribune, September 25, 2011.

Mardi 18 Octobre 2011
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